The Data Episode

Heck yeah.

Love it.

Yeah.

And we have kind of two sites that we're going to talk about, ones that both all three of you have created, well, somewhat independently, some together.

And we'll kind of go through those in the episode and discuss, you know, what those sites do, how we can use the data and interpret it, and the sort of different approaches to understanding data.

The first part of this video is gonna be talking about why CEDH stats are so difficult to understand.

Alex talked about earlier before we started recording how Top Deck has around 250,000 unique games to look at.

And while that may sound like a lot of data sets or individual things to kind of investigate and to use, it's actually not that many.

The first thing we're gonna go into is FFA variants.

So for anyone, including myself, who does not know what this is, I would love for one of you guys to maybe talk about this, and then we'll jump into EDH Top 16 and really look at what this means in practice.

So

I guess FFV variance is like free-for-all variance.

So the thing is, for a 1v1 game, you would expect your win rate to be approximately 50%, but because it's four players, and I guess because it's for CD specifically, with the draw rate, where the draw rate's around 20%, it ends up being like 20, 20, 20, 20, 20.

It's like you could draw or like any of you could win so it ends up being really high variance like it's like a one in five on average if it's like four equally skilled players at a table you're like that's basically just rolling a dice right it's like you don't actually know whereas like flipping a coin already sounds like people already use that analogy is like oh you're flipping a coin it's like it's already kind of random but then you kind of like well when you go up to like rolling dice it's like way more variance

Yeah.

So maybe we pull up EDH Top 16 and

kind of investigate how the four player data set or four player win rate is so different and why we need to interpret it in the way we do.

All right.

So we're in EDH Top 16.

We're going to filter

by win rates.

Let's go in the past three months.

And for our amount of entries, do we want to go with 20 plus entries, 60 plus, 120 plus? What do you guys want to do?

think that kind of depends on what we want to discuss like for example you can go to all commanders first and yeah 71 one entry right i think i think one thing that people talk about a lot is like win rate in cdh but i think this kind of we can show like what's the issue well one of the issues with win rate is like well the decks with the highest winner are generally just like a low entry deck like this only played one tournament and won the tournament and it's like oh wow look at this win rate it's so crazy yeah Well, I guess there's another issue with Rune8 that we'll probably talk about later, which is like win rate doesn't take draws into account.

It's just like wins over games, which isn't the same as like, like if you go like five wins, one draw, that is kind of different than like five wins, one loss.