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Alex Lien

Alex Lien

Competitive cEDH player, L1 Magic judge, and Bay Area tournament organizer who appears on The Bite Sized MTG Podcast discussing cEDH strategy and data analysis.

Jul 18, 2026

8:17
Anything else we kind of want to talk about with win rate and how it might be hard to understand or there's more factors than people are aware of?
8:23
So one factor, this is going to be probably like a pretty recurring theme for like a lot of data stuff is selection bias.
8:31
So what selection bias means is like there's the data that you're not seeing by just looking at win rate or just data in general, which is like the player's agency, basically.
8:38
So for example, like the person who decides to play Arkham Daxon or the person who decides to play Sissy, like their personal like selection on like why they choose to play which deck.
8:47
So if you have a deck that like only good players, exclusively good players choose to play this deck, then like the win rate on that deck would naturally be like very high because it's like that's what all the good players play.
8:59
So you generally see for like, I think you were seeing this for the Arkham before where like, Notorious was the only one winning with it for like a while.
9:06
And at that point in time, it was like the highest win rate deck.

29 MINS LATER

37:50
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