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The Beltway & Beyond

The Beltway & Beyond

Episode 384 - The Midterm Sprint

Oct 15, 2026 · 35 min · 10 segments

With three weeks until Election Day, the battle for control of Congress is entering its final stretch. Our team examines the closely contested Senate races, competing interpretations of the polls, and…

With three weeks until Election Day, the battle for control of Congress is entering its final stretch. Our team examines the closely contested Senate races, competing interpretations of the polls, and why narrow margins could extend uncertainty beyond election night. They also explore what a shift in power could mean for congressional oversight and a crowded lame-duck agenda. Featuring Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer (DC), Mark Alderman (DC), and Sean Clerget (DC).

With three weeks until Election Day, the battle for control of Congress is entering its final stretch. Our team examines the closely contested Senate races, competing interpretations of the polls, and…

Spotify Website

Top entities: United States House of Representatives×27 United States Senate×24 United States Congress×8 Sean Clerget×28 Mark Alderman×14

Speakers: Howard SchweitzerHostMark AldermanHostSean ClergetGuest

Show signals: SuitabilitySafeBiasCenter

The House Is Likely to Flip1:58 – 5:18

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

1:58

21 days.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

1:59

We've got this little election.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:02

It's here.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:03

People are voting, actually, as we've said before.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:06

You know, it's looking at the polls.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:09

Frankly, I think for everybody, the House is a fait accompli, like, How particular races break, we'll see.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:18

But everybody assumes the House is gone.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:22

I

Mark AldermanHost

2:23

think everybody thinks that it's going to be a Democratic House.

Mark AldermanHost

2:28

But how many seats, as you and Sean know better than I, matters a lot.

Mark AldermanHost

2:35

And how close these races are matter a lot.

Mark AldermanHost

2:38

I don't want to step on your talking point.

Mark AldermanHost

2:41

No, go for it.

Mark AldermanHost

2:43

That's my talking point.

Mark AldermanHost

2:44

Everybody's focused on November 3rd.

Mark AldermanHost

2:46

I actually think January 3rd is the more interesting date.

Mark AldermanHost

2:51

It's going to be a wild ride sorting this out between Election Day and swearing in.

Mark AldermanHost

2:59

And winning a lot of seats by a lot of votes will make it less bumpy.

Mark AldermanHost

3:05

Winning the House or even the Senate by a few seats and a few votes is going to make it a very turbulent time, I think.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:15

Well, with all the gerrymandering, there's only so much bandwidth to flip.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:22

Yep.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:23

And the president's approval rating is... is low.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:28

The generic congressional ballot is, I think I saw a plus eight for the Democrats.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:34

So where it was, I think plus or minus where it was last year when in Virginia and New Jersey, uh, The Democrats overperformed expectations.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:49

And where

United States House of RepresentativesCompany
99%27 mentions
United States SenateOrganizationGoverning body
97%24 mentions
United States CongressCompanyGoverning body
94%8 mentions
Sean ClergetPerson
92%28 mentions
Mark AldermanPerson
90%14 mentions
Republican PartyOrganizationPolitical party
88%14 mentions
MichiganAdministrative AreaUS state
85%9 mentions
MinnesotaAdministrative AreaUS state
83%5 mentions
Democratic PartyOrganizationPolitical party
81%29 mentions
WisconsinAdministrative AreaUS state
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72%2 mentions
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69%2 mentions
IsraelCountryCountry in the Middle East
67%7 mentions
Haley StevensPersonUnited States Representative
65%3 mentions
Steve KornackiPersonAmerican journalist and writer
63%1 mention
Mikhail GorbachevPersonFormer President of the Soviet Union
60%2 mentions
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58%3 mentions
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PennsylvaniaAdministrative AreaUS state
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AlaskaAdministrative AreaUS state
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South CarolinaAdministrative AreaUS state
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Susan CollinsPersonUnited States Senator
40%2 mentions
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Chuck GrassleyPersonPresident pro tempore of the United States Senate
1%1 mention

Congressional electionsPolitics > United States politics
Election administrationPolitics > United States politics
2026 midterm electionsPolitics > United States politics > Congressional elections
Congressional legislationGovernment > United States government
House and Senate controlPolitics > United States politics > Congressional elections > 2026 midterm elections
Election analysisPolitics > United States politics
Polling and prediction marketsPolitics > United States politics > Election analysis
Congressional institutionsGovernment > United States government
Close congressional races and polling uncertaintyPolitics > United States politics > Election analysis > Polling and prediction markets
Legislative-executive relationsGovernment > United States government > Congressional institutions
Executive power and congressional oversightGovernment > United States government > Congressional institutions > Legislative-executive relations
Post-election processesPolitics > United States politics > Election administration
Lame-duck sessionGovernment > United States government > Congressional legislation
United States politicsPolitics
United States governmentGovernment
Politics
Government

The House Is Likely to Flip1:58 – 5:18

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

1:58

21 days.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

1:59

We've got this little election.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:02

It's here.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:03

People are voting, actually, as we've said before.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:06

You know, it's looking at the polls.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:09

Frankly, I think for everybody, the House is a fait accompli, like, How particular races break, we'll see.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:18

But everybody assumes the House is gone.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

2:22

I

Mark AldermanHost

2:23

think everybody thinks that it's going to be a Democratic House.

Mark AldermanHost

2:28

But how many seats, as you and Sean know better than I, matters a lot.

Mark AldermanHost

2:35

And how close these races are matter a lot.

Mark AldermanHost

2:38

I don't want to step on your talking point.

Mark AldermanHost

2:41

No, go for it.

Mark AldermanHost

2:43

That's my talking point.

Mark AldermanHost

2:44

Everybody's focused on November 3rd.

Mark AldermanHost

2:46

I actually think January 3rd is the more interesting date.

Mark AldermanHost

2:51

It's going to be a wild ride sorting this out between Election Day and swearing in.

Mark AldermanHost

2:59

And winning a lot of seats by a lot of votes will make it less bumpy.

Mark AldermanHost

3:05

Winning the House or even the Senate by a few seats and a few votes is going to make it a very turbulent time, I think.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:15

Well, with all the gerrymandering, there's only so much bandwidth to flip.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:22

Yep.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:23

And the president's approval rating is... is low.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:28

The generic congressional ballot is, I think I saw a plus eight for the Democrats.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:34

So where it was, I think plus or minus where it was last year when in Virginia and New Jersey, uh, The Democrats overperformed expectations.

H

Howard SchweitzerHost

3:49

And where

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