Aug 26, 2026 · 10 min · 8 segments
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Trey GreenwoodGuest
Gabriel HarberHost
Okay, so putting it all together, what signs should forecasters be looking for in the future in order to identify potential events like this in an anomalous area like the desert southwest?

Yeah, so these events in the desert southwest usually have some of the same hallmarks over and over again.

You usually have a pretty robust trough out across the west coast, often a closed low like we saw on October 6th.

We usually kind of lose a lot of that monsoon moisture relative to what it was during peak season.

So when you have anomalously strong instability, again, not a mind blowing amount, only 500 or so joules per kilogram of mixed layer cape, that's above average for this time of year.

With that strong trough in the west coast, strong deep layer, and low-level wind shear, those are going to be the hallmarks for your severe weather events out in the desert southwest, along with some of that remnant monsoon moisture that came flowing back with the strong low-level dynamics at play, winds out of the south.

Usually, those are going to be your hallmarks for higher-end desert southwest severe weather events.

That overlap of ingredients doesn't happen that much out in the southwest a lot, but when it does, you can get some pretty nasty stuff.

Okay, so putting it all together, what signs should forecasters be looking for in the future in order to identify potential events like this in an anomalous area like the desert southwest?

Yeah, so these events in the desert southwest usually have some of the same hallmarks over and over again.

You usually have a pretty robust trough out across the west coast, often a closed low like we saw on October 6th.

We usually kind of lose a lot of that monsoon moisture relative to what it was during peak season.

So when you have anomalously strong instability, again, not a mind blowing amount, only 500 or so joules per kilogram of mixed layer cape, that's above average for this time of year.

With that strong trough in the west coast, strong deep layer, and low-level wind shear, those are going to be the hallmarks for your severe weather events out in the desert southwest, along with some of that remnant monsoon moisture that came flowing back with the strong low-level dynamics at play, winds out of the south.

Usually, those are going to be your hallmarks for higher-end desert southwest severe weather events.

That overlap of ingredients doesn't happen that much out in the southwest a lot, but when it does, you can get some pretty nasty stuff.
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