Bitcoin Asia (HK) 2026 Day 1 Interviews | SLP768

So some other scholars, they actually publish a paper and they say, if you are within six months from now, the best prediction is price today equal price tomorrow.

It's the most trivial type of prediction because Bitcoin has a property it's called autocorrelation.

That means it has a memory.

So the price today is not going to be very different from the price tomorrow.

Even when it jumps, it's close enough.

That is the best you can do.

Yeah.

Now, they showed that if you go beyond six months, the power law beats anything.

So if you do any prediction, it's a very valuable thing.

Don't use the power law to tell you what it's going to do tomorrow.

But if you're interested in what it's going to do six months from now or beyond, the power law beats any other approach.

Okay.

And it's not even us.

It's a professor from Portugal, from a university in Portugal, who just published a paper on this topic.

Okay, and then is it fair to say that it's something like a... there's like a pull back towards the simple power law, Q50.

It's called what is

mean reverting.

Right.

So when you're

above the line, you're kind of drifting back.

It's almost like a rubber band, right? If

you stretch it too much in one direction or another, it wants to come back.

Exactly.

So

you see that as like that simple power law trend line is kind of the simplest... kind of longer term projection and just generally it'll be above and below, but there'll be kind of times you kind of come back to.