Sep 10, 2026 · 1 hr 41 min · 17 segments
Jonny is joined by Baker from @AboveAverageFPL to talk through how to draft a wildcard, model your own beliefs, and plan with uncertainty using stochastic optimisation. Best watched with video on…
Would you, would, would you suggest, certainly if somebody was coming into this, like this is the first time they've used the tool but they're getting a wild card this week and they wanna do it, would you encourage people to start with that team strengths p- piece?
I think it's a reasonable point of view, yeah, to actually just see if like... 'Cause I think what we sometimes find is, especially like the week after someone's wild carded, if they wild card and then come into our tool and try and like go, "Oh, what should I do?" Or they load it up in game week two, then they do sometimes get suggested like a hit, and they're like, "Oh, well, why is it telling me to take a hit? Uh, what's that s- silly suggestion?" But actually what the hit's telling you is that your beliefs don't match what's in the model currently.
Yeah.
So in order to get your team back on track with the model's current beliefs, then you should do that sooner rather than later in sort of spreading out the, um, the period at which your team disagrees with the production model.
So-
Mm
... yeah, this team strength here, we've got our, our sort of defensive strength on, on the bottom.
Um, so if I click on a team, you can see we've got, um-
Yeah
...
Arsenal are the best, um, team, uh, in defense.
They're the furthest right.
They c- we've got them projecting to concede on average 0.85 goals per game in an average match against an average opponent, um, at, well, I guess at a neutral venue, but you know, it would average out over home and away 'cause there are no neutral venue games.
[lip smack] So essentially in game week one, we're saying for the 38 game weeks, they're gonna concede 38 times 0.85 on average.
So that's how you can kind of base...
I think looking at these and maybe going in the absolute values is a bit trickier.
Yeah
... 2.04 or 2 point or 1.96 is a bit harder to assess unless you have your own prediction model or something.
You know, we've got...
You can import other people's.
But relatively to each other-
I mean, that's good in itself, isn't it?
It's a good start, yeah.
The fact that you can import.
Would you, would, would you suggest, certainly if somebody was coming into this, like this is the first time they've used the tool but they're getting a wild card this week and they wanna do it, would you encourage people to start with that team strengths p- piece?
I think it's a reasonable point of view, yeah, to actually just see if like... 'Cause I think what we sometimes find is, especially like the week after someone's wild carded, if they wild card and then come into our tool and try and like go, "Oh, what should I do?" Or they load it up in game week two, then they do sometimes get suggested like a hit, and they're like, "Oh, well, why is it telling me to take a hit? Uh, what's that s- silly suggestion?" But actually what the hit's telling you is that your beliefs don't match what's in the model currently.
Yeah.
So in order to get your team back on track with the model's current beliefs, then you should do that sooner rather than later in sort of spreading out the, um, the period at which your team disagrees with the production model.
So-
Mm
... yeah, this team strength here, we've got our, our sort of defensive strength on, on the bottom.
Um, so if I click on a team, you can see we've got, um-
Yeah
...
Arsenal are the best, um, team, uh, in defense.
They're the furthest right.
They c- we've got them projecting to concede on average 0.85 goals per game in an average match against an average opponent, um, at, well, I guess at a neutral venue, but you know, it would average out over home and away 'cause there are no neutral venue games.
[lip smack] So essentially in game week one, we're saying for the 38 game weeks, they're gonna concede 38 times 0.85 on average.
So that's how you can kind of base...
I think looking at these and maybe going in the absolute values is a bit trickier.
Yeah
... 2.04 or 2 point or 1.96 is a bit harder to assess unless you have your own prediction model or something.
You know, we've got...
You can import other people's.
But relatively to each other-
I mean, that's good in itself, isn't it?
It's a good start, yeah.
The fact that you can import.
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