Sep 9, 2026 · 8 min · 6 segments
The U.S.-Canada trade war is escalating from tariffs to outright import bans, with Washington blocking roughly a billion dollars' worth of Canadian dairy, alcohol, motorcycles and Bombardier jets. The…
Mike DolanHost
Anna SzymanskiHost
Again, as we have continued conflict in the Middle East, we had the US hit a number of Iranian tankers.
The response is, as you'd expect, the Iranians attacking US bases in Jordan and, indeed, threatening to close the straits completely.
At the same time, we're getting the Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia in fairly significant exchanges too, which affects other routes for oil out of the region.
So all of this is, as you say, is tit for tat in some respects, if it seems to be the mood of the moment.
And, you know, it is significant because $102 just for everyone's metrics was the high we hit in midsummer.
And if we exceed that, we're going all the way back to May when we were in the throes of the first wave of the conflict.
And I think somewhat of what we're seeing right now is an uncertainty premium because no one really knows what flows are actually making it through.
But really, there's just so much uncertainty about exactly how much is getting through.
The one thing, though, that's also interesting is that If you look at how Washington is acting, they're not acting in the same type of more panicked manner that you saw earlier in the summer, which, A, suggests that enough crude may be getting through that you're going to potentially keep prices from totally spiraling.
However, it also means that enough is getting through that this conflict could just continue.
Although I think this week we are getting reports that the traffic in the Straits of Hormuz, at least, has slowed yet again to a trickle.
Again, as we have continued conflict in the Middle East, we had the US hit a number of Iranian tankers.
The response is, as you'd expect, the Iranians attacking US bases in Jordan and, indeed, threatening to close the straits completely.
At the same time, we're getting the Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia in fairly significant exchanges too, which affects other routes for oil out of the region.
So all of this is, as you say, is tit for tat in some respects, if it seems to be the mood of the moment.
And, you know, it is significant because $102 just for everyone's metrics was the high we hit in midsummer.
And if we exceed that, we're going all the way back to May when we were in the throes of the first wave of the conflict.
And I think somewhat of what we're seeing right now is an uncertainty premium because no one really knows what flows are actually making it through.
But really, there's just so much uncertainty about exactly how much is getting through.
The one thing, though, that's also interesting is that If you look at how Washington is acting, they're not acting in the same type of more panicked manner that you saw earlier in the summer, which, A, suggests that enough crude may be getting through that you're going to potentially keep prices from totally spiraling.
However, it also means that enough is getting through that this conflict could just continue.
Although I think this week we are getting reports that the traffic in the Straits of Hormuz, at least, has slowed yet again to a trickle.
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