Sep 23, 2026 · 33 min · 15 segments
What does incrementality really mean, and how can brands understand whether their retail media investment is actually driving growth? In this episode of Retail Media Therapy, Viv Craske and Colin…
Skye FrontierGuestColin LewisHost
Viv CraskeHost
I used to think when you looked at the weather forecast and it said 43% chance of rain that it meant there's a 43% chance of rain.

And now I understand it to mean that if you ran the model with the same inputs 100 times, 43 times it would predict this outcome.

And I kind of think incrementality, particularly medium-sized modelling, is sort of the same.

It's very clever, very high-tech, very powerful, very useful for making big decisions.

But if you take it literally to mean it's 43% chance it's going to rain tomorrow, most of the time you can rely on that.

But don't walk around going, I'm never going to leave my house unless I'm certain whether or not I need an umbrella.

Yeah, I mean, so there's always sort of confidence bands around any of these estimates, right? So, yeah, we've got an ROI of one.

The other side of it is, is there a lot of, I hate to use the word like intuition, but I do think for anyone that's had or owned a P&L of a business, you almost have an intuitive sense of what's driving growth in your business.


I used to think when you looked at the weather forecast and it said 43% chance of rain that it meant there's a 43% chance of rain.

And now I understand it to mean that if you ran the model with the same inputs 100 times, 43 times it would predict this outcome.

And I kind of think incrementality, particularly medium-sized modelling, is sort of the same.

It's very clever, very high-tech, very powerful, very useful for making big decisions.

But if you take it literally to mean it's 43% chance it's going to rain tomorrow, most of the time you can rely on that.

But don't walk around going, I'm never going to leave my house unless I'm certain whether or not I need an umbrella.

Yeah, I mean, so there's always sort of confidence bands around any of these estimates, right? So, yeah, we've got an ROI of one.

The other side of it is, is there a lot of, I hate to use the word like intuition, but I do think for anyone that's had or owned a P&L of a business, you almost have an intuitive sense of what's driving growth in your business.

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