Sep 18, 2026 · 17 min · 9 segments
This week on Outbreak Watch, we’re tracking signs that Ebola transmission may be stopping in some parts of the DRC while continuing elsewhere; what still hasn’t happened with New World screwworm in…
Heather LanderHost
The cumulative numbers are considerably higher than they were three weeks ago.
The outbreak has affected 62 health zones across seven provinces, but those national totals aren't the most important part of this story because the epidemic underneath them looks very different depending on where you look.
There are encouraging signs in some places, like South Kivu has not reported a new case since May.
And SITREP 122 identified seven health zones that had gone approximately 42 days without a new confirmed case.
That's about two maximum Ebola incubation periods without another confirmed infection.
And good evidence that transmission may have been locally interrupted in those areas.
The latest report describes transmission as sustained in Ituri, North Kibu, and O'ule, with more sporadic reporting in Chopo and Bas'ule.
68 of the 71 new cases reported on September 16th came from Ituri and North Kivu alone.
So we're seeing local epidemics moving in different directions at the same time.
More than 7,400 infections sounds like nothing's improving, but cumulative counts tell us how much disease has occurred since the outbreak began, not what transmission is doing today.
Overall contact follow-up is 87.6%, but in North Kivu, standardized treatment facilities are now 96.9% occupied.
42.1% of hospitalized patients are being treated outside those facilities, and Butembo and Catwa have no available treatment beds.
The latest report records 2,810 people vaccinated in Sopo and 600 in Basuele, while preparations are underway in Etruri.
Ervibo is licensed against Zaire Ebola virus, but it's being used here, against Bundabugio virus, under a research protocol.
So this outbreak may also generate important evidence for controlling future Bundabugio outbreaks.
So at this point, I'm less interested in whether the national cumulative total continues to climb.
And I'm more interested in where transmission is continuing and where it's stopping.
The cumulative numbers are considerably higher than they were three weeks ago.
The outbreak has affected 62 health zones across seven provinces, but those national totals aren't the most important part of this story because the epidemic underneath them looks very different depending on where you look.
There are encouraging signs in some places, like South Kivu has not reported a new case since May.
And SITREP 122 identified seven health zones that had gone approximately 42 days without a new confirmed case.
That's about two maximum Ebola incubation periods without another confirmed infection.
And good evidence that transmission may have been locally interrupted in those areas.
The latest report describes transmission as sustained in Ituri, North Kibu, and O'ule, with more sporadic reporting in Chopo and Bas'ule.
68 of the 71 new cases reported on September 16th came from Ituri and North Kivu alone.
So we're seeing local epidemics moving in different directions at the same time.
More than 7,400 infections sounds like nothing's improving, but cumulative counts tell us how much disease has occurred since the outbreak began, not what transmission is doing today.
Overall contact follow-up is 87.6%, but in North Kivu, standardized treatment facilities are now 96.9% occupied.
42.1% of hospitalized patients are being treated outside those facilities, and Butembo and Catwa have no available treatment beds.
The latest report records 2,810 people vaccinated in Sopo and 600 in Basuele, while preparations are underway in Etruri.
Ervibo is licensed against Zaire Ebola virus, but it's being used here, against Bundabugio virus, under a research protocol.
So this outbreak may also generate important evidence for controlling future Bundabugio outbreaks.
So at this point, I'm less interested in whether the national cumulative total continues to climb.
And I'm more interested in where transmission is continuing and where it's stopping.
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