Scarce Cattle, Smart Supply

Now let's get into it.

So the AeroStream Commodity Index last week was a little firmer.

but still down pretty hard year on year.

And we're seeing that reflected in the AeroStream food price index, where across our network, the index is actually tracking kind of flattish to down a little bit versus 2025.

In the commodity markets last week, grain markets were mixed.

We're having a great start to the summer row crops.

And that's good news because we had a historically poor winter wheat crop, as most of you know.

And what we're keeping an eye on also is look at soybean oil, flirting with that 70 cent a pound support level, which a move through there would be good news.

And we're seeing that in the deferred futures.

And the dairy.

Markets continue to be very soft, as we talked about a couple of weeks ago.

Largest milk cow herd we've seen since 1993, which is fueling strong milk and dairy product production.

To give you some perspective, we're likely to have the second lowest CME cheese block average for June in the past decade.

In pork, prices have kind of been erratic where we've seen some weakness in butts being offsets by some increase in the belly markets.

The cutout is down roughly 1% in the last month, so it really hasn't gotten that seasonal gains going yet as a whole.

But pork bellies are up 10% during that same time period.

And that's important because pork bellies will drive your bacon prices.

And the chicken markets, much like dairy, soft, where overproduction is really causing some of these markets to move counter-seasonal.

Again, to give you perspective, chicken wings are almost certainly going to have their least expensive June average price here in well over a decade.

And the beef markets, newsflash, cattle supplies are tight, beef supplies are tight.

But the USDA choice and select cutouts or index of the choice beef and select beef haven't kind of flattish as of late.

And we've seen the inflation versus a year ago temper some.

Now, you remember a couple of weeks ago, we talked about ribs providing a value.

We've seen some strength in the last couple of weeks in the rib markets.

In the beef trim markets, again, this is important because it goes into hamburger, which is a major exposure for the food service and retail supply chain.