Jul 2, 2026 · 10 min · 6 segments
Dire predictions about possible catastrophic impacts of the Iran conflict on oil prices – and thus on the global economy – appear to have largely proven unfounded. Thijs Van de Graaf, Professor of…
Thijs Van de GraafGuestDaniel MorrisHostNeedless to say, an opportune time to be recording this podcast, the US and the Iranians agreeing to talk, which I think we all appreciate is better than agreeing to fight, but no near-term certitude.
Let's go back to the markets or the world's reaction to the outbreak of the war at the end of February.
We saw a lot of predictions for a quite catastrophic impact on oil prices and therefore on the global economy.
We saw figures, oil going to $150 or $200 per barrel, global recession, and so on.
Maybe, Tess, you can take us through some of the reasons those dire predictions turned out to be mistaken.
One is that we went into this crisis with ample buffers because oil was at $60 a barrel.
There was actually an oversupply, which meant that commercial inventories were very high and markets have proven also quite resilient.
that were able to still ship oil to export markets through pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
All of that helped, and there was a massive release of strategic oil stocks by Western governments.
So it was a big shock absorber and it was probably able to do so because it itself has massive strategic oil stocks.
It doesn't disclose information about the pace at which they drew from this, but we can imagine that they did so in large quantities and that also helps to calm the markets.
Needless to say, an opportune time to be recording this podcast, the US and the Iranians agreeing to talk, which I think we all appreciate is better than agreeing to fight, but no near-term certitude.
Let's go back to the markets or the world's reaction to the outbreak of the war at the end of February.
We saw a lot of predictions for a quite catastrophic impact on oil prices and therefore on the global economy.
We saw figures, oil going to $150 or $200 per barrel, global recession, and so on.
Maybe, Tess, you can take us through some of the reasons those dire predictions turned out to be mistaken.
One is that we went into this crisis with ample buffers because oil was at $60 a barrel.
There was actually an oversupply, which meant that commercial inventories were very high and markets have proven also quite resilient.
that were able to still ship oil to export markets through pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
All of that helped, and there was a massive release of strategic oil stocks by Western governments.
So it was a big shock absorber and it was probably able to do so because it itself has massive strategic oil stocks.
It doesn't disclose information about the pace at which they drew from this, but we can imagine that they did so in large quantities and that also helps to calm the markets.
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