Is Distribution Crypto's Biggest Moat?

[laughs]

... and I wish stuff were up 100%, but, um, I mean, this past week hasn't been so bad.

We're, we're looking at, what, BTC is up, like, 8%.

Ethereum's up over 14%.

Solana's up even higher.

Um, yeah, I think it's, it's been a positive week.

Why, why do you all think we're seeing these kind of moves now?

David?

Well, w- I think there's been a couple factors.

Um, first of all is, and we haven't discussed this in our last episode because we, uh, we had the special, uh, uh, uh, guest appearance of Hester Peirce, but, uh, Strategy came up with a big announcement, right? So a framework, uh, on how to, to conduct and to, to run their reserves, and I think that was a big reason why we saw some stabilization on most of the MSTR capital complex.

Uh, Strategy's not back at par, but last I saw it was trading around 90, which is a big change from the mid to low 70s when it was, uh, before that announcement came out.

So, so that was kind of interesting.

Uh, just yesterday we saw Strategy do a $200-something million Bitcoin sale.

So I think Strategy's showing, uh, that they have, uh, flexibility and that maybe they have more flexibility than a big chunk of the market was thinking.

So I do think the first component here is that we saw some stabilization on, on the Strategy and, and, and Strategy story here.

The second thing is that, and this is I think a more technical aspect, and this is something I've been seeing at the desk and also when I'm looking at, uh, broader indicators, um, in the market.

Whenever Bitcoin crosses under the 60K level, the amount of capital that comes in to, to buy and to support, uh, prices is, is actually very impressive.

You can see this in many different ways.

The, the, my, my preferred way to look at this is the, uh, skew of the Bitcoin, uh, order book, right? So if you look at the Bitcoin spot markets, you can kind of build an order book and see where all those bids and asks are sitting.

And whenever we cross under 60K, the way that the order book gets skewed to the buy side, meaning that there's a lot of buy inflow into the market, is actually very impressive.

So this all, I think, points to that range that we have been discussing since we started the episode, [laughs] 60K on the lower bound and 80K on the upper bound.

It still seems that the market is very comfortable defending those borders.

Yeah.

I mean, I, I agree with the, the Strategy, and I think, you know, look, you, as you just mentioned, they sold 200-and-something million dollars worth of BTC.

I think that's not, you know, not material, but not immaterial.