The Truth About Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

So Siegfried, how do we define sustainable aviation fuels then?

Well, simply saying sustainable aviation fuels are renewable waste-derived or renewable power-derived fuels for aircraft that significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional jet fuel.

So they can be produced, they, they can be produced from sustainable feedstocks like, you may have heard of, of that, used cooking oil, municipal solid state waste, agricultural or woody residues, or even from low carbon power sources, which we in Germany like to call green power sources or, or green hydrogen.

So SAF can be blended with fossil jet fuel up to 50% and used in current aircraft engines without any modification, and also without any modification at airports.

So it can just be used, but only up to that blending percentage.

Important to know they are chemically similar to fossil jet fuel and must adhere to strict international standards.

That's what SAFs are about.

Okay, so how big is the sustainable air fuel market at the moment?

Well, production, uh, so to, so to speak, doubled, uh, last year to around one million tons, and, uh, for example, according to the ReFuelEU regul- they must reach at least three million tons in 2030, which is the 6% mandate of, in the EU, with a 1.2% eSAF sub-mandate.

So from, from an EU perspective, the requirement in 2030, from my point of view, can be met.

But globally, with the forecasted demand of around 40 million tons by 2035, uh, the likelihood of a gap be it 2025 or even less, so that production gap seems to be rising.

This is according to a recent forecast by a Dutch organization called Sky Energy.

On the other hand, which is not, let's say, to the contrary, but there is a, a think tank in Germany called CENA, C-E-N-A.

They are an AREG member as well.

Production capacity can go up to more than 30 million tons by 2030.

All the announcements which are currently out there are being accomplished.

So whatever the production increase will be, the majority will happen in the USA and in Asia.

And for comparison, today roughly 300 million tons of Jet A-1 are used globally, and that figure will rise to about 500 million tons by 2050.

So as you can see, there is still a huge gap between what is needed, but I'm optimistic, I'm convinced that by 2050, maybe not 100% of the fossil jet can be replaced, but at least a significant amount.