Sports bettor Milkshake

I, I think a lot of people, when they learn this whole top-down idea, they're doing exactly what you described.

They see it move at a sharp book, and they immediately bet it somewhere else.

But that is gonna get you limited very quickly doing that, and it seems like there's a whole nother level or two levels or three levels of top-down that kind of go beyond that.

And-

Yeah, absolutely

...

so how did you...

First of all, did you lose all your accounts, [chuckles] uh, chasing steam, so to speak? Or, or...

And, and how did you learn kind of the more nuanced way of going about it?

Yeah.

So yes, I lost a lot of accounts early on, and I just kinda kept going at it, even with the smaller limits, trying to arbitrage, trying to do some of the top-down piece early on.

And the S- Spanky and, uh, he, he's interviewed a lot of top-down guys, and they'll say this as well to you, like, the way to figure out top-down is to watch the screen.

And watch the screen and watch the screen.

And I have watched an unreasonable amount of hours.

I have stared at spank ads for, for quite a few years now.

And you start to find patterns in the top-down because you can't feel when the screen is red.

So every sportsbook, every trader, uh, every bettor, when the screen is red, they know what happened, right? Somebody came and, and blew up the market, most likely a large group.

Now, are they trying to fake it or, or not? 'Cause they knew they were gonna make it red.

That wasn't an accident, right? And so you start figuring out some of these things, then you start finding the patterns.

And then another thing that I found out at BetBash that really helped me as a top-down was all the movers.

So real moving groups, real big moving groups.

Their number one request from originators is, "I want a lot down, and I don't want anybody to notice." So that made me understand that when the screen lights up, it's done purposefully or could be an accident.

Uh, so you gave it to a new, new guy, and they went and bet an S-411 account or something, and it blew it up.

But typically, the groups will isolate those people pretty quickly, and they're not gonna get any more action.

So those, those don't last long.