Suits & Cypherpunks with Alex Thorn

Let's start, though, with Bitcoin here.

And I'm sharing some data.

This is the drawdown from all-time high for each of the prior Bitcoin cycles.

And you can see our current cycle is the orange line.

Now, we bottomed sort of around here in June at minus 53% from prior all-time high.

It was the shallowest bottom here.

drawdown in a bear market cycle in Bitcoin's history.

And as you can see, we're now pretty far to the end of this chart.

And this is the all time high plus 400 days, which has typically been the time it takes to start sort of a bullish uptrend following a bear market drawdown.

And you can see we are substantially higher than this same amount of days out from all time high in the prior cycles.

You know, I've written about this, but if the bull market peak was suppressed, bear market drawdown appears to also have been suppressed.

Maybe the cycles are compressing.

And if you've looked at the log price of Bitcoin, you can see that the price appreciation has been leveling out.

Now, some people think that leveling out will then go up again, sort of like an S-curve.

And obviously only history can tell us the answer to that.

But here's the state of where we are.

Right.

If we look based on havings.

Right.

So this chart shows an indexed price.

So we make every Bitcoin price over the years normalized.

And you can see, I mean, this is sort of another view of what I was talking about, about the flattening of the growth of Bitcoin over the years.

you know, on log Y-axis scale.

It almost looks like we barely moved at all in this cycle.

Of course, we are up from the halving, right? The halving was April 2024.