Global Yields, UK Fiscal Risk and the Fed Outlook

Global yield curves remain at the centre of the macro debate as markets weigh higher energy prices, fiscal pressures and the outlook for central bank policy. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss recent bond-market selling, the ECB’s expected 25bp rate hike to 2.5%, and the growing interaction between fiscal policy, inflation and tighter financial conditions across the Eurozone. In the UK, attention turns to fiscal credibility ahead of the Budget and the Bank of England’s next policy update, with the economy still appearing too weak to support further rate hikes. They also look at the outlook for the yen and Bank of Japan policy, rising inflation risks in Australia, and a busy global calendar of inflation data and central bank meetings. In the US, payrolls, inflation and debt sustainability remain central to the outlook. With markets reassessing the path for Federal Reserve policy, next week’s CPI release could prove important for rate expectations, financial conditions and the broader growth outlook. **Chapters** 00:00 Welcome and introductions 00:29 Bond sell-off and ECB outlook 02:24 UK fiscal risks and Bank of England watch 03:35 Japan, Australia and global data 04:24 US growth, inflation and Fed path 06:34 Weekend sports watchlist 07:35 Long and short picks 08:09 Wrap-up and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.