But starting with the UK, how are we thinking about the macroeconomic evolution and events next week?

Absolutely, it has indeed been a very complex week for global markets.

as ongoing or increased tension between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz against what promised to be a more integrated dialogue at the start of the week led to a further surge in oil prices and, by extension, a further sharp rise in yields.

Unfortunately, the UK is both a large energy importer and heavily indebted, so it's not been a good week for the UK.

Ten-year gilt yields have risen above 5.30, and to put this into context, The Liz Trust episode, which Andy Burnham has reminded us has crushed the UK economy, was where yields rose to just 4.6%.

So certainly well into new territory there.

Headlines this morning about the collapse of a broadband infrastructure provider, TalkTalk, are a clear example that high yields are damaging to both public and private sectors alike.

So how are we thinking about the US data at this complex macro juncture?

So what did we take from the Bank of England? And what are we going to watch for next week?

Yeah, thanks very much, Matt.

Amid a wave of monetary policy tightening across developed markets, the Bank of England held rates unchanged at 3.75%.

There were some changes to the QT programme, likely intended to ease the contribution the bank makes to higher yields and steeper curves in the UK at the moment, as it actively reduces its QE stockpile.

On balance, these measures could be seen as marginally dovish.

However, there were three dissents in the vote for unchanged rates, with Chief Economist Pill as well as Mann and Green all voting for an immediate 25 basis point rate hike.

And Bailey essentially implied that rates will likely need to rise.

So how has the FOMC this week altered our views? And what are we watching for in the US next week and also beyond?

But with plenty of moving parts in the domestic and the global macroeconomic backdrop at the moment, how are we thinking about the UK into next week?

Absolutely, yeah.

Thanks, Matt.

It was indeed, as you say, a welcome positive surprise into the close of what has been a very complex week for the UK and more broadly.

On the face of it, the growth bounce will likely encourage a more expansionary budget from a Prime Minister who has seemingly pledged to reduce the welfare bill by increasing welfare spending.

However, we would be cautious into extrapolating a growth rebound for a period which was post-MOU, where energy prices dropped sharply, likely boosting business and consumer sentiment for that specific period.

Recent days have seen a sharp rally in the energy complex, not just oil, but importantly for the UK and for Europe, natural gas, and that has seen a tightening of financial conditions for businesses and consumers alike, and a sharp rally in gilt yields, tightening financial conditions.

As yet, this has not driven a wider risk

And how about the UK and, in fact, the rest of the world in this regard? What are we watching out for next week?

Absolutely.

Talking of fiscal concern, as you say, the UK is a global focal point at the moment.

New Prime Minister Andy Burnham gave his first House address and first Prime Minister's questions this week.

And according to the opposition leader, Burnham faced 120 questions, most of which were spending requests.

and not a single time did he say no to one of those requests.

Now, I have four nieces and nephews who refer to me as Uncle Yes on the basis that they usually get what they want.

income distribution.

So what are we watching for as we begin September?

Yeah, thanks very much, Matt.

As we discussed in this week's blog, the US focus shifts from policy to data watch next week.

And in the UK, it's largely the opposite.

Over the past couple of weeks, the UK data has been relatively mixed.

From an employment perspective, we still remain on the weak side.

Retail sales in their latest print also on the weak side.

But with so many moving macro parts in the US at the moment, how are we thinking about next week?

And how about more broadly? What are we watching for from the global economy as markets return from holidays and focus on the remainder of the year?

Absolutely, yeah.

With the US and Iran tensions seemingly re-intensifying, even if it appears in a more economic or strategic than military direction, energy prices, especially gas in Europe, have returned to the fore alongside inflation concerns.

In Europe, notably in France, there has also been a return to fiscal concerns as new budget deal continues to remain elusive.

Indeed, more globally, government and to a certain extent hyperscaler debt issuance has colluded with new fiscal concerns and inflation fears to drive yields higher, notably at the long end of global curves.

And this adds further complexity to the global macro backdrop at the moment.

Next week, we get the RBA minutes, where in Australia there is a fine balance between a tight labor market and inflation and moderating consumer sentiment.

So how are we thinking about the US next week and beyond?

So how are we thinking about the developments into next week and beyond?

Yeah, absolutely.

As you say, it is a huge week for the UK as Andy Burnham becomes leader of the Labour Party today and prime minister on Monday.

Over the weekend or early next week, we expect to get a list of cabinet appointees and potentially a list of political priorities.

Markets will be very focused on the form of Burnham's promised changes.

Changes implies fiscal cost, however, from increased taxes, risking a backlash from households and businesses, to cutting spending, risking a backlash from the Labour Party, or indeed increasing borrowing, risking a backlash from the gilt market.

All adding to the complexity of this It is a big week for UK data next week.

G10.

So how does that play out in the global macro economy? And what are we watching for next week?

Yeah, absolutely.

In Europe, the court's verdict on Le Pen's ability to run in the next French presidential election is significant, as the current parliament struggles to agree on deficit moderation.

However, as you say, the NATO meetings in Ankara this week also underline the commitment and necessity of Europe to increase the defence spend, so deficits across Europe are going to remain front and centre.

Next week, however, is a quiet week for Europe as the data calendar is light and the ECB enter their blackout period ahead of their meeting on the 23rd.

Further in Europe, we do get the revision of the June CPI print for the Eurozone.

As the market focus on the extent of the ECB hiking cycle continues, the minutes this week proved inconclusive in that regard.

So how are we thinking about the US macro at the moment? And what are the important focal points next week?

And how about more globally? After a complicated global backdrop in the first half of the year, how are we thinking about the global economy as we start the second half? So what are we watching for in that regard next week?

Yeah, absolutely.

It's been an interesting week for the global macro economy.

We've seen stabilisation in the China PMIs, the RBA minutes that highlighted the merit of pausing to assess.

We've seen a strong Tancan report out of Japan and a more sanguine Eurozone inflation print.

Commentary from Cinta also struck a more balanced tone, with chief economist Lane highlighting the fact that the oil price has moved quite a bit lower since the last decision and reiterated the commitment to acting just one meeting at a time.

The Bundesbank's Nagel was more hawkish, but Sternerass was clear that he did not expect anything in July and that there is now a smaller likelihood of further rate increases.

Thanks, Matt.

So how are we thinking about the UK next week and beyond?

Yeah, absolutely.

Thanks, Matt.

It was indeed a huge week for the UK.

On the data front, the news has been more positive this week.

CPI on Wednesday was more subdued than expected.

Services remains still elevated, but impacted by the travel component.

So what about more broadly? What are the important developments in the global economy this week? And what are we watching out for next week?