The Economic Outlook for Equipment Finance in Q3 2026

To get us started, Tim, can you set the stage for us with some high level updates perhaps that have happened in the last few weeks since the latest Economic Outlook was published?

Man, what day of the week is it? I feel like we're flying around.

We talked about this last time.

2026 has been a fast-moving year.

And so for those of you who don't remember, all the way back in July, which was just a few months ago, we had a Fed that was saying, hey – We're not sure that we're going to need to raise rates, maybe.

And by the time we get to September, they were like, we're definitely raising rates probably a few times.

And so we've had a lot of movement in terms of what monetary policy has sounded like over the last few months.

And so really, it's interesting, though, because the data hasn't changed as much as perhaps the communication in the Fed has changed.

So really, we had some good inflation data over the second half of the summer and some worrying inflation data at the end of the summer, early fall.

But the Fed sounds very much like they're going to keep hiking.

So markets are looking at like at least one, maybe two more hikes this year.

So it's in the Fed futures markets.

So it feels like a lot's going on.

That's not unexpected from when we cut our forecast in early August.

We cut our economic outlook.

We had a Fed that was holding because inflation was looking good.

But I also think perhaps there's a little bit of overdoing it on where the Fed's going to go.

And so there's a lot to talk about.

But basically, we've had some treasury market issues.

We had some fluctuating treasury markets.

Yields are going a lot higher, particularly at the long end.

Expectations are being reset.

And everyone's now worried about inflation.

Although I will say today, and I would expect over the next couple of weeks, oil prices are starting to look like they're coming down.

So potentially some disinflationary pressure in the pipeline.