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Tim Mahedy

Chief Economist at the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association and CEO/Chief Economist of Access/Macro, previously at the San Francisco Fed, IMF, and KPMG.

Oct 14, 2026

3:36
So with inflation elevated, as you mentioned, um, why are rate expectations still climbing? Is it just about that persistent inflation? Talk a little bit about that, and then I wanna bring James into the conversation too.
3:48
Sure.
3:49
You know, it's really interesting.
3:50
If we think back, we maybe even mentioned this on the last podcast, if you think back to the fall of '24 and '25, the Fed cut 175 basis points over two falls.
4:01
Right? A lot of it had to do with f- with concerns over the labor market.
4:05
Now, for all you listeners out there, does any-- you know, extra credit, do you know what the 10-year did over those two years? It actually went up, not down.
4:14
So the Fed, think about this.

15 MINS LATER

19:07
[laughs]
3:46
And then I want to bring James into the conversation, too.
3:48
Sure.
3:49
You know, it's really interesting.
3:50
If we think back, we maybe even mentioned this on the last podcast.
3:52
If you think back to the fall of 24 and 25, the Fed cut 175 basis points over two falls, right? A lot of it had to do with concerns over the labor market.
4:05
Now, For all you listeners out there, extra credit.
4:09
Do you know what the 10-year did over those two years? It actually went up, not down.

15 MINS LATER

18:55
What is the biggest long term, like think over the next decade issue that our economy faces? You can go out on a limb here.

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