Oct 16, 2026 · 4 min · 7 segments
Why Money Makes Predictions More Accurate | The Kalshi Story EO stands for Entrepreneurship & Opportunities. Follow the podcast & turn on notifications for new episodes. EO Socials: Twitter…
I disagree that without money you can get the same level of accuracy.
A lot of the research, of course, I come-- my background is in academia, so a lot of the research is always in very controlled environments, right? You're getting a very small set of people, and you're testing specific things, but when you actually take this into the real world, you're talking about millions of people.
Incentives really matter, and that's why when people are putting money where their mouth is, when they're actually putting money behind their convictions, that's why we get the best forecast, because people at the end of the day are incentivized to make money.
And you see a lot of it is like the decrease of polarization, right? If, if you ask someone who they think they're going to win an election, there's a lot of research that says that people go, "Oh, of course, this person, like the, the other person is stupid.
This person's not gonna win." But when you ask them, "Okay, would you put money behind it?" Then they take a step back and they're like, "Well, I'm not really sure because maybe inflation is gonna make a lot of people vote this other side, or maybe COVID is gonna make people change." So it kind of decreases polarization, but it's the whole point about money being the incentive to bring truth and information to markets, which you can't have if, if you don't have it.
I disagree that without money you can get the same level of accuracy.
A lot of the research, of course, I come-- my background is in academia, so a lot of the research is always in very controlled environments, right? You're getting a very small set of people, and you're testing specific things, but when you actually take this into the real world, you're talking about millions of people.
Incentives really matter, and that's why when people are putting money where their mouth is, when they're actually putting money behind their convictions, that's why we get the best forecast, because people at the end of the day are incentivized to make money.
And you see a lot of it is like the decrease of polarization, right? If, if you ask someone who they think they're going to win an election, there's a lot of research that says that people go, "Oh, of course, this person, like the, the other person is stupid.
This person's not gonna win." But when you ask them, "Okay, would you put money behind it?" Then they take a step back and they're like, "Well, I'm not really sure because maybe inflation is gonna make a lot of people vote this other side, or maybe COVID is gonna make people change." So it kind of decreases polarization, but it's the whole point about money being the incentive to bring truth and information to markets, which you can't have if, if you don't have it.
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