Disruptive Forces in Investing
Jul 16, 2026 · 26 min · 10 segments
At the end of last year, Neuberger's investment leaders laid out five themes to guide investors through 2026. Since then, a regional war in the Middle East and a global oil shock have reshaped the…
Shannon SaccociaGuestJeff BlazekGuest
Anu RajkumarHost
Coming into the year, we called for divergence in monetary and fiscal approaches, and that's a theme that seems to have played out.
I get a little nervous, but when I look at this one, I feel pretty good about how we did.
When we look at divergences and the ideas that central banks were gonna have a more complicated year, that was not at all where the market was when it started.
The market generally thought, "Oh, more easing is on the table." And the divergences have certainly played out.
We did not obviously call the catalyst that's made this year more complicated, the Iran war, as you pointed out in the intro, and that has introduced a lot of energy supply disruptions.
It's really caused certain countries to be dealing with dislocation depending on their reliance on the Middle East as a provider of goods and services that flow through there.
We have a number of central banks around the world that are in the midst of a hiking campaign yet again.
We've seen the shape of the curves across many countries invert or change altogether.
We've also seen the mandate of what central banks need to achieve, really their differences get isolated and put under the microscope.
So the Fed, for example, and at the beginning of the year, we did think they were gonna be dovish.
After this situation happened, and it's put inflation at a higher headline and core rate than they would prefer, now the expectation is the Fed at best will be pausing the rest of this year, and that really is a dramatic difference.
But when we have other central banks that are raising rates the way they are, uh, the divergences are loud and clear.
The other drivers, too, is we still have some of the tariffs working their way through the system.
Granted, we had a reversal of the tariffs to some extent, but that's gonna continue to create noise.
And we have a new Fed chair, so Kevin Warsh, who's going to be more data dependent, perhaps less transparent about the way that they show their work in between meetings.
He's gonna have a lot of different priorities around looking at productivity from AI as well as how they communicate in the marketplace.
And so, yeah, divergences though, if that's the theme, and we identified it, I'd say A+ for us-

Coming into the year, we called for divergence in monetary and fiscal approaches, and that's a theme that seems to have played out.
I get a little nervous, but when I look at this one, I feel pretty good about how we did.
When we look at divergences and the ideas that central banks were gonna have a more complicated year, that was not at all where the market was when it started.
The market generally thought, "Oh, more easing is on the table." And the divergences have certainly played out.
We did not obviously call the catalyst that's made this year more complicated, the Iran war, as you pointed out in the intro, and that has introduced a lot of energy supply disruptions.
It's really caused certain countries to be dealing with dislocation depending on their reliance on the Middle East as a provider of goods and services that flow through there.
We have a number of central banks around the world that are in the midst of a hiking campaign yet again.
We've seen the shape of the curves across many countries invert or change altogether.
We've also seen the mandate of what central banks need to achieve, really their differences get isolated and put under the microscope.
So the Fed, for example, and at the beginning of the year, we did think they were gonna be dovish.
After this situation happened, and it's put inflation at a higher headline and core rate than they would prefer, now the expectation is the Fed at best will be pausing the rest of this year, and that really is a dramatic difference.
But when we have other central banks that are raising rates the way they are, uh, the divergences are loud and clear.
The other drivers, too, is we still have some of the tariffs working their way through the system.
Granted, we had a reversal of the tariffs to some extent, but that's gonna continue to create noise.
And we have a new Fed chair, so Kevin Warsh, who's going to be more data dependent, perhaps less transparent about the way that they show their work in between meetings.
He's gonna have a lot of different priorities around looking at productivity from AI as well as how they communicate in the marketplace.
And so, yeah, divergences though, if that's the theme, and we identified it, I'd say A+ for us-
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