2026 Market Forecast: AI Boom, China Slowdown and Taiwan Stocks

So we're going to put some of that knowledge you have as a professional to test and also the skills you have as a lecturer by getting you to explain some of the things that Fred and I and our viewers want to know about, about the economy, about the outlook and basically about what's happening right now in the market.

So Fred, go for

it.

You're obviously very experienced in the financial world.

What's your outlook on the markets in 2026?

My outlook for 2026 is actually really positive.

U.S. is always the leading market globally.

So when the U.S. does well, Taiwan follows.

So usually if you see, you know, the previous day trading in the U.S., Taiwan, if it goes up, Taiwan usually follows suit.

This is an election year for Trump.

And we have learned from last year's experience that Trump is very pragmatic, right? He knows.

how to actually, I wouldn't say manipulate the market, but how to shape the market into moving into a certain direction that he wants to.

So I would say that for an election year, he would try to maintain the market on a pretty stable footing so that he would actually still keep the house.

So the rule of thumb of where the U.S. goes, Taiwan usually follows.

Can you explain why that is?

Taiwan is not a very big market, right, in terms of the equity market.

And there are a lot of foreign investors into Taiwan's equity market.

So whenever there is risk on or risk off from the U.S., a lot of it is the same amount of money that's moving in and out of Taiwan.

So that actually in itself is a big player in Taiwan.

And then when the foreign investments move in and out, the local people always follow as well.

What are some of the things investors in Taiwan can look out for in the U.S. economy right now?

If we're talking about macro sort of factors that impact the U.S. stock market.

So there's always a difference between the stock market and the economy, right? Because stock market is usually the leading indicator of the economy.

So a lot of times the market is up, but the economy might not be so good.

But if we look at the stock market on the macro level, I would say that the two most important factors are its interest rate and its employment rate, and obviously inflation as well.