A Shrinking Social Security Fund, a Rent vs. Buy Showdown, and 50 Years of Tax-Free Growth

Mortgage rates near 7%, a Social Security fund that has started shrinking, and a new account for kids that most parents still haven't heard of. It's a lot to keep straight, and the headlines rarely explain how any of it affects your own plan. It starts with an envelope from the US Department of the Treasury. Wheeler's family received a $1,500 refund tied to healthcare.gov marketplace fees, even though he estimates he paid only a few hundred dollars in fees over three years. The hosts explain how those fees reach families through higher premiums, why a flat refund to households that don't receive subsidies misses the people who need help most, and why the Crowleys are donating theirs to the HealthWell Foundation. Colin follows up on last week's Social Security conversation. He walks through the 1983 reforms that kept the system running, how reserves grew to about $2.9 trillion by 2020 and have been shrinking since, and why fewer workers paying in for each retiree makes the math harder every year. The hosts talk about the $184,500 cap on Social Security payroll taxes, why investing the surplus in stocks would have bought time without solving the problem, and why they stress test client plans with reduced or missing benefits. Next, interest rates. Corporate interest burdens are near record lows because well-run companies refinanced when rates were low, while households shopping for a home now face mortgage rates near 7%. Wheeler shares a rent vs. buy exercise the team ran for Portsmouth, Boston and Los Angeles. In every scenario they tested, renting and investing the difference came out ahead. On a $400,000 loan, the gap between 3% and 7% is about $1,000 a month. The hosts debate why Seacoast home prices hold up, how AI data center borrowing may be pushing long-term rates higher, and why the same rates that make buying expensive also let savers lock in steady income. Colin then covers NASA's X-59, an experimental jet built to turn the sonic boom into a muffled thump, and how NASA's testing over US cities could open the door to supersonic passenger flights over land. Wheeler closes the main segments with Trump accounts. He walks through signing his daughter up in the app, answers a question from a stranger at a coffee shop about why he'd use one instead of a UTMA, and explains why the account becoming an IRA at 18 matters. Converted to a Roth over time, after the kiddie tax years, it can grow tax-free for decades. The episode ends with two client stories: a family who realized the upkeep on three homes was missing from their financial plan, and a longtime listener who called in to review his beneficiaries after hearing an earlier episode. By the end, you'll understand why today's interest rates cut both ways, where Social Security actually stands, and how a Trump account fits into a child's long-term savings. Compound Growth is produced by CoFi Advisors. If this episode raised a question about your own plan, we're happy to talk it through. \[draft] Sources: HealthWell Foundation, healthwellfoundation.org NASA X-59 / Quesst mission (referenced on the recording) IRS Form 4547, Trump account election (referenced on the recording) Brookings estimate of AI infrastructure spending (referenced on the recording; not independently verified) **Follow Us:** - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/compoundgrowthpod - YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CompoundGrowthPodcast - TikTok: http://www.tiktok.com/@compoundgrowthpod - Wheeler’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/wheeler-crowley-0a63933b/ - Colin’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/colin-walker-mba-6099a038/ **Credits:** Created By: Wheeler Crowley and Colin Walker Production, Editing and Post-Production: Tori Rothwell