BM Talks: Ben Ashby speaks Q3
Jul 17, 2026 · 38 min · 7 segments
**We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks for a Q3 update from our regular guest**…
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Jul 17, 2026 · 38 min · 7 segments
**We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks for a Q3 update from our regular guest**…
Helen ThomasHost
Ben AshbyGuest
So where do we start? Should we just kind of, since we last spoke, I was obviously pretty bearish about the energy price.
But it also looks to me that there's a good chance there'll be a bit of a breakdown.
yeah, I want to pick up on that because I think you're absolutely right to flag up that, you know, ceasefire or end of war doesn't mean end of hostilities, does not mean end of risk, does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz goes, quote, back to normal.
Yeah, I mean, look, it's not impossible, but I can't see how oil... will not be between at least 90 to $100 by the end of the year unless there's something really radically that changes.
The other thing as well is the flip side to the argument is as China particularly has drawn down on its petroleum reserve and nobody knows how big that is, but they've cut the feedstock to refiners.
So you've still got that distortion going through in the wider economy with diesel fuel, jet fuel, various other sort of distillate type products.
And again, I don't see how that doesn't get distorted By the end of the year, because either more feedstock has to be made available, in which case that should drive up the oil price or China perhaps wants to accelerate its reserve drain even quicker, which is not impossible.
Or we are going to be eating prices that are higher, particularly probably October, November, because that's when the winter fuel season starts.
Because as you've just said, there's been a substitution of if you want to keep the refineries going, then you want to keep the yield high, then you sacrifice something else.
But it is back to economics 101, supply line, demand line, you meet new equilibria with new prices all the time.
So where do we start? Should we just kind of, since we last spoke, I was obviously pretty bearish about the energy price.
But it also looks to me that there's a good chance there'll be a bit of a breakdown.
yeah, I want to pick up on that because I think you're absolutely right to flag up that, you know, ceasefire or end of war doesn't mean end of hostilities, does not mean end of risk, does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz goes, quote, back to normal.
Yeah, I mean, look, it's not impossible, but I can't see how oil... will not be between at least 90 to $100 by the end of the year unless there's something really radically that changes.
The other thing as well is the flip side to the argument is as China particularly has drawn down on its petroleum reserve and nobody knows how big that is, but they've cut the feedstock to refiners.
So you've still got that distortion going through in the wider economy with diesel fuel, jet fuel, various other sort of distillate type products.
And again, I don't see how that doesn't get distorted By the end of the year, because either more feedstock has to be made available, in which case that should drive up the oil price or China perhaps wants to accelerate its reserve drain even quicker, which is not impossible.
Or we are going to be eating prices that are higher, particularly probably October, November, because that's when the winter fuel season starts.
Because as you've just said, there's been a substitution of if you want to keep the refineries going, then you want to keep the yield high, then you sacrifice something else.
But it is back to economics 101, supply line, demand line, you meet new equilibria with new prices all the time.
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