Aug 2, 2026 · 28 min · 6 segments
Nick Luck and Neil Channing here with the latest episode of the insightful political betting podcast, as they turn their attention to the Claction by-election, and wonder whether the Farage furore has…
Neil ChanningHostNick LuckHost
Well, it's funny, isn't it? Because, you know, we think that his position is becoming more and more precarious.
I think last time we convened, we were fairly sure he was going to win Clacton.
And we did recommend when we were talking with Peter Oborn and after that, conversation uh that maybe having a bet on him to go in 2026 was a good thing it's not a very strong bet for a market it's only about 22 grand matched uh someone's offering six quid at 3.25 and there's a bloke that wants two quid at 5.0 so you know not not a hugely liquid market But if you do want to back him at over 2-1 and your stakes are in 10ers or 50s, I suspect it wouldn't take you too long to get matched at over 2-1.
Somebody commented after our last episode that listening to it, you'd think Reform had no chance at all, but they're still leading in the polls.
And I think at the time they were still 11-4 to get most seats in the next election.
I'm sort of slightly surprised they haven't drifted more since we last convened the Manchester mayoral as completed.
And at the end of the day, Labour dropped quite a lot of votes there and reform put on quite a lot of votes, as did the Green Party, who perhaps would be disappointed with the result.
But, you know, I think, and some people would say, well, Reform have now shown they've been beaten in Gorton and Denton, they've been beaten in Makerfield, now they've been beaten in Manchester.
Are they ever going to win anywhere? And, of course, Restore Britain competed in Manchester, and they sort of did all right.
Can I ask about Rupert Lowe? Because when we interviewed him on this podcast, he's absolutely ruled out any kind of pact with Farage.
Well, it's funny, isn't it? Because, you know, we think that his position is becoming more and more precarious.
I think last time we convened, we were fairly sure he was going to win Clacton.
And we did recommend when we were talking with Peter Oborn and after that, conversation uh that maybe having a bet on him to go in 2026 was a good thing it's not a very strong bet for a market it's only about 22 grand matched uh someone's offering six quid at 3.25 and there's a bloke that wants two quid at 5.0 so you know not not a hugely liquid market But if you do want to back him at over 2-1 and your stakes are in 10ers or 50s, I suspect it wouldn't take you too long to get matched at over 2-1.
Somebody commented after our last episode that listening to it, you'd think Reform had no chance at all, but they're still leading in the polls.
And I think at the time they were still 11-4 to get most seats in the next election.
I'm sort of slightly surprised they haven't drifted more since we last convened the Manchester mayoral as completed.
And at the end of the day, Labour dropped quite a lot of votes there and reform put on quite a lot of votes, as did the Green Party, who perhaps would be disappointed with the result.
But, you know, I think, and some people would say, well, Reform have now shown they've been beaten in Gorton and Denton, they've been beaten in Makerfield, now they've been beaten in Manchester.
Are they ever going to win anywhere? And, of course, Restore Britain competed in Manchester, and they sort of did all right.
Can I ask about Rupert Lowe? Because when we interviewed him on this podcast, he's absolutely ruled out any kind of pact with Farage.
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