Clacton

Whether it helps turnout, I'm not sure.

Clapton turnout was OK.

But really, the question of turnout is an eternal one for by-elections, because despite the fact that the poor people of whatever constituency are getting droned in literature...

But not everybody knows there's a by-election going on because the coverage of them nationally isn't as wall-to-wall as it would be with a general.

I think that the British public are smart enough to figure out that, you know, if you live in Great Yarmouth, the way to get change is perhaps Rupert's lot.

If you live in Clacton, the way to get change is to stick with Nigel and his lot, and incidentally, there are probably a, a, a great many Labor-held seats in the north of England that fall into that category.

If, on the other hand, you know, you are in, um, a part of the world where frankly Restore and Reform are, are, are no-shows despite everything you see on Twitter, then stick with Kemi's lot.

I, I think voters are smart enough to figure that out, and I don't think we should worry too much.

That would be the ideal situation

situationI, I thought that was going to happen.

And look, what would it have taken for that to happen? It's not just winning by-elections in Clacton.

You know, I've been there, I've done that.

And he said he found that personally very difficult now you know having gone through that and decided to stick it out you know my conclusion is that he is now going to you know stay with reform all the way to the election that might change we've got a very important test of all of that coming out because the parliamentary standards commissioner and the relevant committee of MPs are going to make a report on his failure to declare that very substantial personal gift that he received if the verdict is very, very bad for him.

There is a pretty strong likelihood that the people of Clacton will demand, you know, what's known as a recall.

And therefore, you know, if he wants to remain lead, you know, an MP, you'll have to fight yet another by-election, you know.

I slightly assume if the worst comes to worst for him, he will fight another by-election.

[upbeat music] Let me introduce my guests, Sir John Curtice, Michael Crick and Brian Taylor.

[clapping] Let, let's start off with something that's happening on Thursday, the Clacton by-election.

Which, um, uh, two of you contributed to.

Did you contribute to this, Brian? I can't remember.

Um-

I can't remember

... and I don't think the Clacton by-election-

It's under copyright enforcement

It's been a while.

It was just before the Clacton by-election, the beginning of August we were last with you, and it was a rare event that we got spectacularly wrong on Bet the House.

We underestimated the power of Count Binface.

We will learn our lesson and have hung our heads in collective shame ever since, but we are back, and we are back with a bang.

Maybe we'll talk about that in a future show, uh, because there's so much to get into today.

We, we-- it's been a, as usual, it's been a mental time, but more, more importantly is what's been happening in the betting markets.

So the most seats for the general election, uh, you might think that with Burnham having a honeymoon, um, and Reform, you know, they won the Clacton by-election.

We aren't gonna get a Count Binface government, even though we underestimated them, uh, the man, the great one.

But I did find someone whose cameo was operative.

So I asked Count Binface to tell us why he thought Nigel Farage lost one in Clacton, but is getting it in the neck from the moment.

You commissioned this? Yeah, I did.

But I have far more important business to attend to on Earth right now, because I want to say an

I think that's the notice there.

And as for the 72 million, maybe he needs it to catch up because the latest polls say that even with reforms funding, they're going to come behind Labour and the Tories, which is very funny indeed.

And maybe then, who knows, maybe they need the 72 million to have a recruiting drive for a new leader once 4-0-9 gets turned down in Clacton after the second by-election.

What's this hyperspace? We shall see.