Oct 22, 2026 · 28 min · 8 segments
With the Autumn Budget next week, the team weighs up what's likely, what's needed and what would catch them off guard.
There'd be rumours aplenty, but this time we've not really been given a huge amount.
That wasn't until yesterday at the time of recording that binge Tuesday yesterday when it emerged that Healy won't or probably won't be raising capital gains tax despite there being calls to do so from cabinet colleagues.
Like all budgets, there's always that one measure that kind of gathers steam, isn't there? And it seems like raising capital gains tax was this year's big one.
And the Chancellor, as you said, he ruled it out in an interview this week.
And it kind of opens up the discussion at this point, what other levers does he have? Obviously, the government has boxed themselves in with its manifesto where they've already taken off the table any increases in national insurance, VAT or income tax.
CGT, it feels like an easy one to raid if they want to increase any taxes in order to raise any funds or whatever they wish to do with it.
then that does make you think well what's left it's just a fiddly taxes at this point it's kind of is he going to be searching down the back of the sofa to try and find something or is there any some sort of wizardry that's going to be happening on budget day because i can't think of any big ticket items that they could possibly do with cgt now off the table
Well, the CGT is a classic rock and a hard place for Labour in a way that it isn't for other parties.
I mean, those on the left of that party are arguing it's wrong for wealthy people to pay a lower rate of tax on the sales of second homes and other assets compared to your standard income.
You've had Dale Vince, Neil Kinnock, and various other think tanks sort of putting that forward.
But I think it's one of those, if you look back, Treasury officials have consistently argued that People who would be affected by this would respond to a CGT increase by changing their behavior, either leaving the UK, delaying asset sales, for example, and then that would actually cause a drop in revenue for the exchequer.
You know, the classic sort of Laffer curve of tax, isn't it? The Treasury rule of thumb has always been that that sort of revenue maximizing rate is that 24% above which.
Well, let's touch on that room for manoeuvre that the Chancellor does or doesn't have, you know, be it fiscal headroom has been a bit squeezed, public finances are under pressure, or like you said, Richard, his tax options are a little bit constrained by those political promises.
And on that last point, is this just going to be the case every time this Labour government has a budget that they have kind of backed themselves into a corner for as long as the government lasts? You know, are we going to be asking these same questions every time? Oh, well, they can't do this, this and this because they promised.
So what does that leave them? Will that just be an ever-present query for the next few
years? I think the trouble is that whichever political party comes into power, they're always going to be defined somewhat by their history.
And I think that is certainly the case here with the Labour Party, as Tom talked about a moment ago.
And as I've already said, with so many things taken off the table, they don't have much runway to do anything of any real significance.
There'd be rumours aplenty, but this time we've not really been given a huge amount.
That wasn't until yesterday at the time of recording that binge Tuesday yesterday when it emerged that Healy won't or probably won't be raising capital gains tax despite there being calls to do so from cabinet colleagues.
Like all budgets, there's always that one measure that kind of gathers steam, isn't there? And it seems like raising capital gains tax was this year's big one.
And the Chancellor, as you said, he ruled it out in an interview this week.
And it kind of opens up the discussion at this point, what other levers does he have? Obviously, the government has boxed themselves in with its manifesto where they've already taken off the table any increases in national insurance, VAT or income tax.
CGT, it feels like an easy one to raid if they want to increase any taxes in order to raise any funds or whatever they wish to do with it.
then that does make you think well what's left it's just a fiddly taxes at this point it's kind of is he going to be searching down the back of the sofa to try and find something or is there any some sort of wizardry that's going to be happening on budget day because i can't think of any big ticket items that they could possibly do with cgt now off the table
Well, the CGT is a classic rock and a hard place for Labour in a way that it isn't for other parties.
I mean, those on the left of that party are arguing it's wrong for wealthy people to pay a lower rate of tax on the sales of second homes and other assets compared to your standard income.
You've had Dale Vince, Neil Kinnock, and various other think tanks sort of putting that forward.
But I think it's one of those, if you look back, Treasury officials have consistently argued that People who would be affected by this would respond to a CGT increase by changing their behavior, either leaving the UK, delaying asset sales, for example, and then that would actually cause a drop in revenue for the exchequer.
You know, the classic sort of Laffer curve of tax, isn't it? The Treasury rule of thumb has always been that that sort of revenue maximizing rate is that 24% above which.
Well, let's touch on that room for manoeuvre that the Chancellor does or doesn't have, you know, be it fiscal headroom has been a bit squeezed, public finances are under pressure, or like you said, Richard, his tax options are a little bit constrained by those political promises.
And on that last point, is this just going to be the case every time this Labour government has a budget that they have kind of backed themselves into a corner for as long as the government lasts? You know, are we going to be asking these same questions every time? Oh, well, they can't do this, this and this because they promised.
So what does that leave them? Will that just be an ever-present query for the next few
years? I think the trouble is that whichever political party comes into power, they're always going to be defined somewhat by their history.
And I think that is certainly the case here with the Labour Party, as Tom talked about a moment ago.
And as I've already said, with so many things taken off the table, they don't have much runway to do anything of any real significance.
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