So what do you see on these two points? Does this account for the timing of this?

Yeah, I think so.

I think that there is going to be, I would expect, an escalation of these sorts of activities until there's a firm pushback or demonstration that the United States is that something would trigger the U.S. to sort of get back in to not just supporting Ukraine, but but back into supporting NATO very strongly.

And so I think Russia is just there.

They want to test to see where we are.

And I think where we are is we want to leave European security to the Europeans.

And we have indicated that we don't really see Russia as a major security threat to the United States.

Max, do you

And I think what we're seeing is basically all of these countries putting up with Washington as kind of the minimum they have to, hedging against China, and looking for ways to come together to hold up a rules-based order that they never agreed with over.

Yeah.

And when I think when you, to start to put out with about that, you want to find a strategy document.

And I think that's very true on the Southeast Asia side, in part because it doesn't sort of work as a sort of collective unit.

However, I don't think that I think there probably should be a strategy document on the EU side.

Now, EU foreign policy is a total mess.

In part because foreign policy defense still remain the responsibility of each member state.

And it feels very much like Europe is the presentator of this kind of other vision of how the internet and how kind of regulation of tech giants work so how is europe in responding to trump administration pressure on the tech side it's a great

[laughs]

But, but to me, my, I- I think, I think the general American reaction was, well, shocking, FIFA's corrupt.

Uh, and I- I...

Part of me is, uh, if this is the wake-up call for Europe to actually take action vis-à-vis FIFA, then great.

But I think it, it's telling that it wasn't Cristiano Ronaldo somehow being allowed to play in the first two matches of this World Cup after receiving a straight red card, which is a three-match ban, playing in the first two games of the Wo- World Cup because FIFA didn't wanna have him miss it, already sort of being very arbitrary.

And when Infantino comes and gives a peace prize, and is calling on the White House constantly, especially for an administration, I think, not too familiar with the rules and, and confines of global soccer, uh, you know, they're like, "Well, get on the phone with, with Gianni," who has been in the Oval Office countless times.

Now, the one country that has actually taken action against FIFA corruption is the United States, when in 2015, uh, James Comey, as the head of, uh, FBI, the, the US-led array against FIFA.

Very interesting.

Yeah

...

US developing nuclear weapons, uh, with lots of technological innovations.

And I think where we see the war now is that Ukraine...

And we have to remember, this is not, you know, Ukraine was the, in some ways, the heart of the Soviet defense industrial complex.

So Ukraine has long had a, a real defense industry, uh, and an industrial capacity, engineering, uh, uh, you know, very advanced technologically.

And so they have put all that effort now into thinking about how they can manage and get through this war.

But I think that definitely in itself is a reflection of this ongoing, um, uncertainty among the pro-Kremlin commentators as to, you know, where, where is this really taking Russia?

De-escalate the conflict, essentially.

Yeah, yeah.

Basically, stop having the war cost you lives and money.

And then what you do is you take this rather extraordinary defense industrial base, and I ...

We talk a lot about Ukraine's, but we have a report at CSIS coming out, um, in a few weeks about Russia's defense industrial base, and it's really sh- it's scary.

I describe it as a little bit like you, you know, if you think of Jurassic Park, Russia is like the big T-rex, and maybe Ukraine is like the velociraptors.

They're faster, more agile.

But ...