So can you just talk a bit to lay the groundwork for the conversation?

So this is not my first, um, engagement with this very controversial issue, uh, especially among many of the Russian liberals.

The key controversy, uh, since the start of the war has to do that based on the official data and the polling numbers, the support for the war, no matter how horrible and atrocious, uh, has consistently remained high in Russia, and, uh, many authors therefore question the reliability of the polling in the authoritarian context.

Uh, so full disclosure, I'm a political scientist, uh, Columbia t- University trained, and, uh, in my analysis I do work with polling, uh, data both in Russia and across East Central Europe.

The notion that analysts and researchers cannot work with, uh, polling in authoritarian settings by default is not correct.

Even in China and even in Iran, uh, there are polls being run, and there are, like, peer reviewed articles being published.

Uh, Russia is not an exception, and, uh, frankly, before 2022, few people, uh, seriously questioned the reliability, at least of the broader trends that are being reported by the polls.

So tell me how do they impact Russian public opinion differently?

Mm

... and that means supplying Russia with much needed weapons, munition, uh, very significant supply that really, uh, for Russia, um, does convert into the battlefield advantages, and of course the troops.

Um, from 14 to 15,000 troops were deployed by, uh, North Korea, especially against the backdrop of Russia's huge manpower shortages.

This is definitely very significant, uh, as- assistance on the side of, um, North Korea.

Uh, the relationship has definitely moved beyond just purely, being purely transactional.

It's increasingly adopting more strategic themes.

And in June 2024, both countries signed the Russia-North Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which in this sense really has a lot of, uh, formal mutual defense commitment clauses, something that we have not seen authoritarian countries do for quite some time, so this is extremely significant development.

Mm

Mm-hmm

... and that means supplying Russia with much needed weapons, munition, uh, very significant supply that really, uh, for Russia, um, does convert into the battlefield advantages, and of course the troops.

Um, from fourteen to fifteen thousand troops were deployed by, uh, North Korea, especially against the backdrop of Russia's huge manpower shortages.

This is definitely very significant, uh, as- assistance on the side of, um, North Korea.

Uh, the relationship has definitely moved beyond just purely, being purely transactional.

It's increasingly adopting more strategic themes.

And in June 2024, both countries signed the Russia-North Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which in this sense really has a lot of, uh, formal mutual defense commitment clauses, something that we have not seen authoritarian countries do for quite some time, so this is extremely significant development.

And so the old sanctions seem beautiful on paper, but they don't really have any significant effect.

Hmm

... ongoing since maybe earlier this year.

Uh, this is a combination of a variety of factors.

Uh, most importantly, a lot of, uh, you know, breakthroughs were promised by the regime.

Uh, last year, there was also some hope associated to Trump administration ability to negotiate peace agreement.

Um, uh, the economy was doing somewhat okay.

All of those factors essentially now seem to be gone.

Um, and the question is, you combine that with perhaps a collapse of morale, support, a sense that this is really not going anywhere, um, does something shift inside the Kremlin? Is, is how, you know, Ukraine is, is, is hoping this plays out in, uh, uh, in the next, uh, months and, and perhaps years.