Maximillian Nölke – $200,000 In 1 Day, Energy Trading Insights

If you compare it to like equities, for example, or just the sort of other markets, what are the most important sort of external factors that could influence the prices that you guys are trading?

So number one, and I think it's the one thing we're seeing, especially quite poignant right now, what's happening in the Middle East and also in Russia as well, but it is gas prices.

So every day that will affect no matter what energy market you're in.

even in a market that says they're, you know, try to be as much renewables and batteries as possible.

You still need CGTs on the system at any point in time, just for security.

If wind drops all of a sudden, you won't have enough batteries in most markets to hold that for a substantial amount of time.

And each CGT will take time to, um, to wrap up, to match the demand that's needed.

Um, so therefore the gas price will often always set the price of most markets, unless it's a very, very high wind or solar day.

And, um, And that's something which is the most important.

Next will be renewable levels, which is very much entwined.

So, you know, wind, solar, and then there's temperature as well, which will also affect the demand and how people use their, you know, their heating in their house, maybe behavioral patterns as well, which will affect demand levels.

And then you have the interconnector flow as well between countries.

So that's another massive element.

You know, if you're looking at Ireland, we have 1.5 or 1.45 gigawatts of electricity, which often on most days can be more than a quarter, maybe a third of our electricity at any point.

So all of a sudden, if the UK price goes up, all of a sudden that will become the floor of the Irish price.

But if it goes into Europe as well, that will affect GB prices and that GB prices will affect us.

And that's another massive, hard to predict element too.

Maybe it's a little bit of speculation, but also surrounding Super El Nino or anything regarding massive temperature increases over Europe.

Is that something that you guys are already sort of incorporating in the models? Is that stuff that's like relevant or is it like too far out?

For my specific role, I'm often looking at the next few days, the next day within days.

So it wouldn't really affect me too much, but it is important to, I think, factor in any point is, and how that will affect the demand shape over time.

And that will affect how you spot trends, how they're going to change over time too.

So we've seen throughout this whole summer, especially in Europe, we've had quite a warm summer and it's led to a lot of high air conditioning demand and also fan demand.

It's been mad, but in Europe, we're so far behind in terms of air conditioning, even from areas in Central South America, Different parts of the world as well.

Every other country, it seems, even the countries that would have a lot lower GDP per capita, have air conditioning units.

If you compare it to like equities, for example, or just the sort of other markets, what are the most important sort of external factors that could influence the prices that you guys are trading?

So number one, and I think it's the one thing we're seeing, especially quite poignant right now, what's happening in the Middle East and also in Russia as well, but it is gas prices.

So every day that will affect no matter what energy market you're in.

even in a market that says they're, you know, try to be as much renewables and batteries as possible.

You still need CGTs on the system at any point in time, just for security.

If wind drops all of a sudden, you won't have enough batteries in most markets to hold that for a substantial amount of time.

And each CGT will take time to, um, to wrap up, to match the demand that's needed.

Um, so therefore the gas price will often always set the price of most markets, unless it's a very, very high wind or solar day.

And, um, And that's something which is the most important.

Next will be renewable levels, which is very much entwined.

So, you know, wind, solar, and then there's temperature as well, which will also affect the demand and how people use their, you know, their heating in their house, maybe behavioral patterns as well, which will affect demand levels.

And then you have the interconnector flow as well between countries.

So that's another massive element.

You know, if you're looking at Ireland, we have 1.5 or 1.45 gigawatts of electricity, which often on most days can be more than a quarter, maybe a third of our electricity at any point.

So all of a sudden, if the UK price goes up, all of a sudden that will become the floor of the Irish price.

But if it goes into Europe as well, that will affect GB prices and that GB prices will affect us.

And that's another massive, hard to predict element too.

Maybe it's a little bit of speculation, but also surrounding Super El Nino or anything regarding massive temperature increases over Europe.

Is that something that you guys are already sort of incorporating in the models? Is that stuff that's like relevant or is it like too far out?

For my specific role, I'm often looking at the next few days, the next day within days.

So it wouldn't really affect me too much, but it is important to, I think, factor in any point is, and how that will affect the demand shape over time.

And that will affect how you spot trends, how they're going to change over time too.

So we've seen throughout this whole summer, especially in Europe, we've had quite a warm summer and it's led to a lot of high air conditioning demand and also fan demand.

It's been mad, but in Europe, we're so far behind in terms of air conditioning, even from areas in Central South America, Different parts of the world as well.

Every other country, it seems, even the countries that would have a lot lower GDP per capita, have air conditioning units.