Sep 13, 2026 · 13 min · 10 segments
Read in isolation, today's news is a single, unattributed incident: UKMTO reports a projectile struck a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, starting a fire and forcing an evacuation, with Iranian…
OK, let's unpack this, because to really get what's happening right now in September, we have to look back.
Yeah, you have to establish the historical baseline first.
We have to look at the spring, early 2026.
When the global system was pushed to its absolute limits.
Exactly.
Because without that context, September just looks like random chaos.
So let's impartially report on what the historical and intelligence sources say about February 28th, 2026.
Right.
That was Operation Epic Fury.
Yes.
The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
And the response to that was immediate.
They didn't just close it on paper.
They turned it into an active conflict zone.
Striking actual merchant vessels.
Yeah.
The Prima and the Stana imperative were both hit and the immediate market shock was just unprecedented.
So let's look at Denis Ushakov's research here because he documented exactly what happened to the markets.
Right.
Ushakov noted that oil spiked from below $70 a barrel up to $126.
Which is a massive jump.
But the really crazy part is the insurance.
Yes, the war risk insurance premiums.
Ushakov points out they jumped to 0.7% of a ship's whole value.
OK, let's unpack this, because to really get what's happening right now in September, we have to look back.
Yeah, you have to establish the historical baseline first.
We have to look at the spring, early 2026.
When the global system was pushed to its absolute limits.
Exactly.
Because without that context, September just looks like random chaos.
So let's impartially report on what the historical and intelligence sources say about February 28th, 2026.
Right.
That was Operation Epic Fury.
Yes.
The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
And the response to that was immediate.
They didn't just close it on paper.
They turned it into an active conflict zone.
Striking actual merchant vessels.
Yeah.
The Prima and the Stana imperative were both hit and the immediate market shock was just unprecedented.
So let's look at Denis Ushakov's research here because he documented exactly what happened to the markets.
Right.
Ushakov noted that oil spiked from below $70 a barrel up to $126.
Which is a massive jump.
But the really crazy part is the insurance.
Yes, the war risk insurance premiums.
Ushakov points out they jumped to 0.7% of a ship's whole value.
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