Oct 13, 2026 · 18 min · 6 segments
Is Trump correct that the diesel shortage is due to refinery disruptions, not Hormuz? Rick asks Energy Expert Kyle Bertamini, Principle Research Analyst at Enverus
Kyle BertaminiGuestRick JensenHostSo I want you and me to understand to what extent is refinery capacity and the refineries in Russia being blown up by Ukraine, for example, or those in the Middle East, how much of that is responsible for the high cost of diesel? And on the phone right now, I'm, uh, very, very fortunate to have, uh, the senior analyst at Verus, Kyle Bertamini.
When we think about what's really driving diesel prices, you know, not just in, in the US, but really globally, it's, it's twofold.
It's declining inventories as a result of the closur- uh, closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
So we're seeing, you know, stocks around the US, uh, as, as well as the rest of the world decline, you know, as those barrels are constrained.
And then on the other side of it, which, you know, Trump, um, has been talking more about, is the refinery outages.
In a, in a 10, uh, well, you know, 7 to 10 million barrels of refineries are currently offline.
That's in a, uh, in a 100 million barrel a day market, so about 10% is offline.
And when you take off that level of inventory, um, you know, it does squeeze the, the, the v- the volume available to all the customers around the world, which really drives up the price.
How much though? I mean, certainly there are diesel refineries elsewhere in the world.
So if we break down the numbers, um, in a 100 million barrel a day market, you know, diesel accounts for, you know, somewhere around a quarter of total, um, consumption, uh, out of the 100, 100 million barrels.
So when you take off, you know, even 4 to 5% in a market that's quite balanced, um, all, all the while, while you have declining inventories globally, it does have quite the squeeze and, you know, have, has driven up the price, you know, quite remarkably over the last number of months.
Um, you know, of the 7 or so million barrels of refinery capacity that's offline, about 5 million of that is in Russia, and the resulting 2 million barrels a day is within the Persian Gulf.
So I want you and me to understand to what extent is refinery capacity and the refineries in Russia being blown up by Ukraine, for example, or those in the Middle East, how much of that is responsible for the high cost of diesel? And on the phone right now, I'm, uh, very, very fortunate to have, uh, the senior analyst at Verus, Kyle Bertamini.
When we think about what's really driving diesel prices, you know, not just in, in the US, but really globally, it's, it's twofold.
It's declining inventories as a result of the closur- uh, closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
So we're seeing, you know, stocks around the US, uh, as, as well as the rest of the world decline, you know, as those barrels are constrained.
And then on the other side of it, which, you know, Trump, um, has been talking more about, is the refinery outages.
In a, in a 10, uh, well, you know, 7 to 10 million barrels of refineries are currently offline.
That's in a, uh, in a 100 million barrel a day market, so about 10% is offline.
And when you take off that level of inventory, um, you know, it does squeeze the, the, the v- the volume available to all the customers around the world, which really drives up the price.
How much though? I mean, certainly there are diesel refineries elsewhere in the world.
So if we break down the numbers, um, in a 100 million barrel a day market, you know, diesel accounts for, you know, somewhere around a quarter of total, um, consumption, uh, out of the 100, 100 million barrels.
So when you take off, you know, even 4 to 5% in a market that's quite balanced, um, all, all the while, while you have declining inventories globally, it does have quite the squeeze and, you know, have, has driven up the price, you know, quite remarkably over the last number of months.
Um, you know, of the 7 or so million barrels of refinery capacity that's offline, about 5 million of that is in Russia, and the resulting 2 million barrels a day is within the Persian Gulf.
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