Ukraine Just Absolutely HAMMERED Moscow…Again!

So as we continue to see Ukraine breaking into the airspace of Russia's capital city, it's important to understand why this is beginning to happen more and more often.

And that's what separates recent strikes from being interesting anecdotes and makes them look more like devastating trends for Russia, which will likely make the war unrecognizable from where it's at today in one year's time, just as it is today from a year ago.

This is all happening for two major reasons.

The first is the growing competence of Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.

The second is the fact that Russia is running out of air defenses across the entire country.

So there is pressure on the Russian system from both directions here, and it only increases every single day.

On the one hand, we need to acknowledge Ukrainian ingenuity.

They've managed to create incredibly cheap long-range attack drones that they can send into Russian airspace at huge, unprecedented scales, like the 1900 drones in the recent record-breaking attack, which will probably be broken again soon.

And these scales are so large that they simply completely overwhelm Russian air defense systems, ensuring that a large number of drones always gets through to their targets, even if many are shot down.

The economies of scale here are impressive.

It is now cheaper for Ukraine to send an entire wave of highly capable drones against Russia's capital than it is for Russia to build net new air defense systems.

And that means Ukraine's ability to overwhelm Russia's existing capabilities is getting stronger over time.

Essentially, given enough time, Ukraine can brute force their way into Russia's capital whenever they want, while still staying ahead of the curve on the war of attrition.

Over time, if that trend continues, which seems likely, Ukraine wins.

That trend alone is a hugely important point that I often see missed in the typical reporting which focuses on the day-to-day events of the war.

But in truth, trends are what win wars, not anecdotes.

And the trend for Ukraine is vastly different from anything that Russia is capable of doing, though it might not at first look like it on the surface.

Right now, Russia also attacks Ukraine's capital on a regular basis, and they do hit targets.

But there's an important caveat.

Increasingly, Russia is only consistently able to reach their targets with their fast-flying, expensive ballistic missiles.

Russia's cheaper drones that they famously used earlier in the war are now getting consistently shot down by Ukraine at rates of 90 to 95%.

And Ukraine is also increasingly capable of shooting down even Russian jet-powered drones.

These jet-powered drones themselves were created by Russia to increase drone speed and to try to improve their chances of making it to a target without being intercepted, with the trade-off being that they were two times more expensive with only one quarter of the traditional range.

And even that is no longer working as well as it once did, even though it's a new innovation.

None of this is on accident.