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The Nuclear Table

The Nuclear Table

Europe’s Nuclear Future: Deterrence, Autonomy and the US Alliance

Oct 28, 2026 · 34 min · 12 segments

As doubts grow about Washington’s commitment to European security, is Europe rethinking its reliance on the American nuclear umbrella? In this episode of The Nuclear Table, I’m joined by Emmanuelle…

As doubts grow about Washington’s commitment to European security, is Europe rethinking its reliance on the American nuclear umbrella? In this episode of The Nuclear Table, I’m joined by Emmanuelle Maitre, Senior Research Fellow at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS) in France, to explore the changing transatlantic security relationship, France’s role in European nuclear deterrence, and what greater European strategic autonomy could mean for the future of European defense.

As doubts grow about Washington’s commitment to European security, is Europe rethinking its reliance on the American nuclear umbrella? In this episode of The Nuclear Table, I’m joined by Emmanuelle…

Speakers: Emmanuelle MaitreGuestIan Fleming ZhouHost

Show signals: SuitabilitySafeBiasCenter

Top entities: NATO×46 Europe×98 France×36 Washington×6 Ukraine×11

Can Europe Replace NATO?3:55 – 5:07

I

Ian Fleming ZhouHost

3:55

It's a good thing that you just brought the issue of alternatives.

I

Ian Fleming ZhouHost

3:57

What would an alternative security framework look like?

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:04

Well, it's very difficult to say because, as I was alluding to, it's not really being thought about.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:12

as much.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:14

To some extent, we say we can't replace NATO.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:16

We hear, I mean, we can't replace NATO.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:18

We can't do the same.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:19

And it's true, especially in the short term, Europeans can do much.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:23

They have been investing.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:24

They are now putting a lot of money on the table, but they can't replace the United States.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:29

On the one hand, as a military power, they can't have the same, at least, I mean, in the foreseeable future, they can't have the same capacities.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:38

And the idea of completely, basically, Recreating NATO without the US is something that is seen as a little bit extravagant at this stage because it both seems as unnecessary.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:52

As I was saying, the priority currently is to make it through, to ensure that NATO is still there, that the US is not entirely leaving.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

5:01

And so it's quite difficult to do that and at the same time to plan for a system that would be completely alternative or different.

NATOOrganizationInternational organization
98%46 mentions
EuropeContinentContinent
95%98 mentions
FranceCountryCountry in Europe
91%36 mentions
WashingtonCityCapital of the United States of America
88%6 mentions
UkraineCountryCountry in Europe
84%11 mentions
AutonomyEntity
80%3 mentions
GermanyCountryCountry in Europe
77%6 mentions
European UnionAdministrative AreaSupranational political union
73%6 mentions
RussiaCountryCountry
70%13 mentions
United StatesCountryCountry in North America
66%36 mentions
Foundation for Strategic ResearchCompanyThink tank
63%3 mentions
Emmanuelle MaitrePerson
59%10 mentions
Research fellowEntityJob title
55%1 mention
Donald TrumpPerson45th and 47th U.S. President
52%2 mentions
Emmanuel MacronPersonPresident of France
48%2 mentions
Arms controlEntity
45%1 mention
United KingdomCountryCountry in Europe
41%7 mentions
White HouseTourist AttractionOfficial residence in Washington, D.C., United States
38%2 mentions
BrusselsEntityCapital of Belgium
34%1 mention
PolandCountryCountry in Europe
30%2 mentions
Vladimir PutinPersonPresident of Russia
27%1 mention
IsraelCountryCountry in the Middle East
23%1 mention
SwedenCountryCountry in Europe
20%1 mention
Cold WarEventWar
16%1 mention
Republican PartyOrganizationPolitical party
13%1 mention
MoscowCityCapital of Russia
9%1 mention
AustriaCountryCountry in Europe
5%1 mention
IrelandCountryCountry in Europe
2%1 mention

International RelationsGovernment
NATO and European SecurityGovernment > International Relations > Transatlantic Relations
European Defense Burden-SharingGovernment > International Relations > Transatlantic Relations > NATO and European Security
U.S. Commitment to European SecurityGovernment > International Relations > Transatlantic Relations > NATO and European Security > European Defense Burden-Sharing
French Forward DeterrenceMilitary > Nuclear Strategy > Nuclear Deterrence
European Security LessonsWar > Russia-Ukraine War
Limits of Nuclear DeterrenceWar > Russia-Ukraine War > European Security Lessons
Conventional and Gray-Zone ThreatsWar > Russia-Ukraine War > European Security Lessons > Limits of Nuclear Deterrence
European Strategic AutonomyGovernment > Defense Policy
Defense Industrial CooperationGovernment > Defense Policy > European Strategic Autonomy
Arms Control and Risk ReductionPolitics > International Security Policy
Escalation ManagementPolitics > International Security Policy > Arms Control and Risk Reduction
European-Russian Security DialoguePolitics > International Security Policy > Arms Control and Risk Reduction > Escalation Management
Russia-Ukraine WarWar
Defense PolicyGovernment
Transatlantic RelationsGovernment > International Relations
Nuclear StrategyMilitary
Nuclear DeterrenceMilitary > Nuclear Strategy
International Security PolicyPolitics
Politics
Government
Military
War

Can Europe Replace NATO?3:55 – 5:07

I

Ian Fleming ZhouHost

3:55

It's a good thing that you just brought the issue of alternatives.

I

Ian Fleming ZhouHost

3:57

What would an alternative security framework look like?

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:04

Well, it's very difficult to say because, as I was alluding to, it's not really being thought about.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:12

as much.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:14

To some extent, we say we can't replace NATO.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:16

We hear, I mean, we can't replace NATO.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:18

We can't do the same.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:19

And it's true, especially in the short term, Europeans can do much.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:23

They have been investing.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:24

They are now putting a lot of money on the table, but they can't replace the United States.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:29

On the one hand, as a military power, they can't have the same, at least, I mean, in the foreseeable future, they can't have the same capacities.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:38

And the idea of completely, basically, Recreating NATO without the US is something that is seen as a little bit extravagant at this stage because it both seems as unnecessary.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

4:52

As I was saying, the priority currently is to make it through, to ensure that NATO is still there, that the US is not entirely leaving.

Emmanuelle MaitreGuest

5:01

And so it's quite difficult to do that and at the same time to plan for a system that would be completely alternative or different.

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