Jul 23, 2026 · 20 min · 10 segments
Simon Brown, host of MoneywebNOW and founder of Just One Lap, unpacks the negative oil supply shock and the positive technology shock that shaped H1 2026.
Simon BrownGuest
Duduzile RamelaHost
Looking at the first six months of this year, what picture is emerging for you at least?
And I mean, to be clear, we're not in a position we had hoped to be from the beginning of the year.
But I think we're not in the horror that I think many would have thought of, which is why I think more than anything, it is perhaps that resilience.
They note that on the back of these developments, which is global financial conditions, which is AI and the oil market, which we'll get into, global growth in the first quarter of 2026 turned out to be stronger than expected, slowing from 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 3% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis instead of the 2.7% they had forecast for April.
And I mean, I want to stress, you know, resilience, yes, but that doesn't mean it isn't a tough ride there, particularly for consumers and consumers the world over have seen, you know, energy costs, transport costs, fuel costs are rising.
But I think what really struck us, we essentially lost 10% of the world's oil supply going through the Straits of Hormuz, which then just disappeared overnight.
And oil got to, looking at Brent, got to about $120 towards the sort of mid to late March.
One was, in fact, a couple of it, but the one was There was some demand destruction.
We saw it in some markets like Philippines, where they said to folks, only go into the office every second day.
We saw airlines cutting back, not because they couldn't charge the surcharge, which many did, but just cutting back, just reducing demand.
Looking at the first six months of this year, what picture is emerging for you at least?
And I mean, to be clear, we're not in a position we had hoped to be from the beginning of the year.
But I think we're not in the horror that I think many would have thought of, which is why I think more than anything, it is perhaps that resilience.
They note that on the back of these developments, which is global financial conditions, which is AI and the oil market, which we'll get into, global growth in the first quarter of 2026 turned out to be stronger than expected, slowing from 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 3% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis instead of the 2.7% they had forecast for April.
And I mean, I want to stress, you know, resilience, yes, but that doesn't mean it isn't a tough ride there, particularly for consumers and consumers the world over have seen, you know, energy costs, transport costs, fuel costs are rising.
But I think what really struck us, we essentially lost 10% of the world's oil supply going through the Straits of Hormuz, which then just disappeared overnight.
And oil got to, looking at Brent, got to about $120 towards the sort of mid to late March.
One was, in fact, a couple of it, but the one was There was some demand destruction.
We saw it in some markets like Philippines, where they said to folks, only go into the office every second day.
We saw airlines cutting back, not because they couldn't charge the surcharge, which many did, but just cutting back, just reducing demand.
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