Why can't we PREDICT disasters?

Well, in my mind, a prediction's like an absolute, like, I think this is going to happen at this exact point in time.

Yeah.

Whereas I think a forecast like shows you a range of possible scenarios over a time period.

But it also talks about like the likelihood of that occurring.

So there's always going to be like a range of uncertainty weather forecast, you know, like with, I think the most obvious one is like a weather forecast, you know, we have a weather forecast every single day, but whether it like rains or not is like totally up to chance and likelihood.

And there's a, you know, we can look at what we think the weather might do, but it always doesn't always like do what we think it might do.

So,

yeah.

When it's a sunny day, we could also have rain.

Yeah.

And I think that pulls into the likelihood aspect is it's a range.

It's always not going to happen.

Yeah.

It's very frustrating when you see the weather forecast.

And I guess that forecast term is there for us.

But yeah, you see the forecast and then you're like, you know, I am going to take my coat just in case.

Yeah.

Do I trust you forecast? And I think it's not necessarily down to, it's an interesting thing in the normal day to day because we're like, gosh darn it.

Yeah.

Like, I don't trust you anymore because you got it wrong.

But it's like in the weather space, again, it's that forecast.

It's that we think all this range of things could happen.

And this is our best estimate of what might happen.

But like equally, it could change.

Like, so it's not a prediction.

Well, in my mind, a prediction's like an absolute, like, I think this is going to happen at this exact point in time.

Yeah.

Whereas I think a forecast like shows you a range of possible scenarios over a time period.

But it also talks about like the likelihood of that occurring.

So there's always going to be like a range of uncertainty weather forecast, you know, like with, I think the most obvious one is like a weather forecast, you know, we have a weather forecast every single day, but whether it like rains or not is like totally up to chance and likelihood.

And there's a, you know, we can look at what we think the weather might do, but it always doesn't always like do what we think it might do.

So,

yeah.

When it's a sunny day, we could also have rain.

Yeah.

And I think that pulls into the likelihood aspect is it's a range.

It's always not going to happen.

Yeah.

It's very frustrating when you see the weather forecast.

And I guess that forecast term is there for us.

But yeah, you see the forecast and then you're like, you know, I am going to take my coat just in case.

Yeah.

Do I trust you forecast? And I think it's not necessarily down to, it's an interesting thing in the normal day to day because we're like, gosh darn it.

Yeah.

Like, I don't trust you anymore because you got it wrong.

But it's like in the weather space, again, it's that forecast.

It's that we think all this range of things could happen.

And this is our best estimate of what might happen.

But like equally, it could change.

Like, so it's not a prediction.