The New Math on Bonds — Nobody Expected This

In this episode, I cut through the conflicting headlines about bonds and walk through what's actually changed for retirement portfolios heading into 2026. I start with the 40-year tailwind that ran from 1982 to 2021 — when interest rates fell from 16% under Paul Volcker all the way to near zero — and explains why 2022 became the worst year for U.S. bonds in modern history, with the traditional 60/40 portfolio falling roughly 17.5% (its worst result since 1937). I then walk through why 2026 looks fundamentally different: the 10-year Treasury hovering around the low 4% range, Charles Schwab projecting continued short-rate cuts with sticky long-term yields, and Fidelity pointing to the return of the "term premium."Links:https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fixed-income-outlookhttps://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/bond-market-outlookhttps://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily\_treasury\_yield\_curve&field\_tdr\_date\_value=2026https://www.morningstar.com/markets/experts-forecast-stock-bond-returns-2026-editionhttps://robberger.com/portfolios/the-60-40-portfolio/