2026-10-12 The Fed's Last Hail Mary: A Debt Crisis, Inflation, and the Future of Gold

Well, it's football season.

If you're a fan like me, you know that when a football team is down by a touchdown or less with only seconds left on the clock, and a half a field or more to go to score, there's really only one play left in the playbook, and that's the Hail Mary.

Now, the Hail Mary is part of any football fan's vocabulary.

If you watch football, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

Interestingly, the term originated back in 1975 when the Dallas Cowboys were playing the Minnesota Vikings in a playoff game.

The Cowboys were trailing with a little time left.

The Cowboys quarterback Roger Staubach threw a desperation pass of 50 yards and connected with receiver Drew Pearson for a game-winning touchdown.

Now, when Staubach was asked about the pass after the game by a group of reporters, Staubach said that when he threw the pass, he closed his eyes and said, "A Hail Mary." And just like that, a new football term was born.

Since that time, whenever a team has been trailing by a touchdown or less with little time on the clock and a long way to go to score, the only play in the playbook that will give the team a chance to win is the very low probability Hail Mary pass.

It's now low probability because the defense knows it's the only play in the playbook that has a chance of working, so the defense gets to set up and defend against the only obvious play in the playbook.

And while the chances that the Hail Mary pass produces a game-winning outcome are low, the odds become exponentially lower the further the offense is from the end zone.

A 40-yard Hail Mary has a better chance of succeeding than a 90-yard Hail Mary, which has a success probability of about zero.

Now, despite the near zero success probability of a 90-yard Hail Mary, the offense still runs the play.

Why? Because there's simply nothing else they can do.

Now, that scenario perfectly describes the position in which the Federal Reserve now finds itself.

Well, it's football season.

If you're a fan like me, you know that when a football team is down by a touchdown or less with only seconds left on the clock, and a half a field or more to go to score, there's really only one play left in the playbook, and that's the Hail Mary.

Now, the Hail Mary is part of any football fan's vocabulary.

If you watch football, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

Interestingly, the term originated back in 1975 when the Dallas Cowboys were playing the Minnesota Vikings in a playoff game.

The Cowboys were trailing with a little time left.

The Cowboys quarterback Roger Staubach threw a desperation pass of 50 yards and connected with receiver Drew Pearson for a game-winning touchdown.

Now, when Staubach was asked about the pass after the game by a group of reporters, Staubach said that when he threw the pass, he closed his eyes and said, "A Hail Mary." And just like that, a new football term was born.

Since that time, whenever a team has been trailing by a touchdown or less with little time on the clock and a long way to go to score, the only play in the playbook that will give the team a chance to win is the very low probability Hail Mary pass.

It's now low probability because the defense knows it's the only play in the playbook that has a chance of working, so the defense gets to set up and defend against the only obvious play in the playbook.

And while the chances that the Hail Mary pass produces a game-winning outcome are low, the odds become exponentially lower the further the offense is from the end zone.

A 40-yard Hail Mary has a better chance of succeeding than a 90-yard Hail Mary, which has a success probability of about zero.

Now, despite the near zero success probability of a 90-yard Hail Mary, the offense still runs the play.

Why? Because there's simply nothing else they can do.

Now, that scenario perfectly describes the position in which the Federal Reserve now finds itself.