Macro Talk: With Aahan & Bob

Uh, so starting with the week, it was definitely, like, an interesting one, at least from my perspective.

Um, overall, I would say that, uh, looking across the major US markets, so stocks, nominals, inflation protected, uh, tips, commodities, and gold, I would say that, you know, the market pricing to me looked a little bit more on the disinflationary side, particularly driven by the things that were happening in energy markets.

Um, just to go through the days, um, on Monday we had, uh, the treasury announce potential use of the TGA for-- to fund its buybacks.

Um, that seemed to, uh, materially kinda support the, the bond market.

Tuesday, we basically had, uh, uh, some developments in the Iran war situation where oil basically fell off the cliff, which were more of a support for yields.

Um, on Wednesday we saw PCE da-data, which modestly surprised expectations, um, and resulted in a little bit of pressure on fixed income.

Thursday, I think the, the really big story was actually on Wednesday, which bled into Thursday, which was the, you know, the, the, the Nvidia earnings, which, uh, bled through to equities on the next day.

So equities really basically put up all of their gains on Thursday.

And today, of course, we have, uh, Jackson Hole.

Our week-to-date numbers aren't refreshed for, you know, whatever market action is happening right now.

But yeah, that's basically how I saw the week.

Bob, how did you see it?

Yeah, I mean, fortunately, at least for stocks, uh, they have, uh, have given back their gains and even, I guess if you look at the long bond, which is what I'm usually interested in-

Mm

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it also is doing hardly anything, uh, in response to worse.

So these are, uh, you know, somewhat up to date.

Um, it's, you know, uh, bonds don't look like the worst here as I sort of scan through, uh, the, the picture here.

Um, so, you know, for your bond lovers out there, um, another week where it's not the worst.

Uh, I-- No, honestly, there are some times that basically nothing happens in markets over the course of a week, and that's kind of my, my gist of what, uh, what, what my takeaway is.

I think the, um, you know, the, the moves on first nearby oil I think are particularly interesting.

Um, certainly a lot of, uh, aggressive rhetoric from the administration around the oil problem being solved at a time when, you know, the sort of real data that, you know, when people are really tracking the real data doesn't seem justified.

Um, uh, but, you know, remains to be seen.

Obviously, a volatile, uh, market can go up, you know, five or 10% in a week, up and down all the time.

And, you know, this was a, a bit of a down week mostly driven by that rhetoric.