Openview 6th August 2026
Aug 6, 2026 · 8 min · 7 segments
* * * Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- Speakers
- Open View HostHost
Aug 6, 2026 · 8 min · 7 segments
* * * Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
While exports are still moving, higher freight costs, rising insurance premiums and uncertainty around vessel movements continue to inject a risk premium into world wheat values.
The market is caught between geopolitical risk and a perception of comfortable global supply and fearful of any deals that could unlock the current Black Sea bottleneck, which would weigh on prices.
Large importers across North Africa and the Middle East have generally adopted a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy following the above-average harvests, allowing them to use domestic stocks before extending coverage.
Algeria reportedly bought 720,000 tonnes of wheat this week for September-October shipment and it's likely to be Romanian-Bulgarian origin.
US wheat futures have found support from concerns over reduced domestic wheat production following drought impacts earlier in the season.
However, improving crop prospects across parts of Canada and generally favourable growing conditions for US maize and soybeans have prevented a more substantial rally.
No sign so far of purchases of the additional $17 billion of US agricultural goods, which will no doubt be on the agenda when Presidents Trump and Xi meet in Washington at the end of September.
European markets remain influenced by harvest progress, although reports of variable yields across several producing regions have prevented values from moving significantly lower.
EU maize production is being revised lower as heat and drought continues in Western Europe, which is now moving eastwards.
The UK wheat harvest is moving rapidly to a conclusion following a prolonged spell of dry and hot weather.
The general theme emerging is one of disappointment compared with expectations earlier in the growing season.
AHDB's latest harvest survey estimated wheat yields at 6.8 tonnes a hectare from crops harvested to date, below both last year's 7.2 tonnes a hectare and the 10-year average of 7.9. Farm reports from across eastern and southern England continue to highlight the impact of drought stress, particularly on lighter land where yields have generally fallen short of expectations despite reasonable grain quality.
The question is, how much bigger is this season's wheat crop than last year, if at all? Geopolitical and weather, the El Nino will continue to generate headlines which fuel algorithms and market direction going forward, with fundamentals currently taking a back seat until they can be better assessed.
While exports are still moving, higher freight costs, rising insurance premiums and uncertainty around vessel movements continue to inject a risk premium into world wheat values.
The market is caught between geopolitical risk and a perception of comfortable global supply and fearful of any deals that could unlock the current Black Sea bottleneck, which would weigh on prices.
Large importers across North Africa and the Middle East have generally adopted a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy following the above-average harvests, allowing them to use domestic stocks before extending coverage.
Algeria reportedly bought 720,000 tonnes of wheat this week for September-October shipment and it's likely to be Romanian-Bulgarian origin.
US wheat futures have found support from concerns over reduced domestic wheat production following drought impacts earlier in the season.
However, improving crop prospects across parts of Canada and generally favourable growing conditions for US maize and soybeans have prevented a more substantial rally.
No sign so far of purchases of the additional $17 billion of US agricultural goods, which will no doubt be on the agenda when Presidents Trump and Xi meet in Washington at the end of September.
European markets remain influenced by harvest progress, although reports of variable yields across several producing regions have prevented values from moving significantly lower.
EU maize production is being revised lower as heat and drought continues in Western Europe, which is now moving eastwards.
The UK wheat harvest is moving rapidly to a conclusion following a prolonged spell of dry and hot weather.
The general theme emerging is one of disappointment compared with expectations earlier in the growing season.
AHDB's latest harvest survey estimated wheat yields at 6.8 tonnes a hectare from crops harvested to date, below both last year's 7.2 tonnes a hectare and the 10-year average of 7.9. Farm reports from across eastern and southern England continue to highlight the impact of drought stress, particularly on lighter land where yields have generally fallen short of expectations despite reasonable grain quality.
The question is, how much bigger is this season's wheat crop than last year, if at all? Geopolitical and weather, the El Nino will continue to generate headlines which fuel algorithms and market direction going forward, with fundamentals currently taking a back seat until they can be better assessed.
The rest of this transcript — segmented and speaker-labeled, so you land on the exact moment something was said
Search every transcript — by keyword, by phrase, or by meaning, across every show Radar indexes
Trends — what is surging across podcasts, measured against its own baseline
Alerts — when a name you follow appears in a newly indexed episode
No account is needed to search Radar.
