MATIF

Wheat remained supported by imported demand and continued Black Sea execution risk, while corn stayed range-bound as traders wait for more reliable U.S. harvest yields.

The stronger dollar following the Fed's rate hike is another headwind for CBOT this morning, but could give Matif some relative support in euro terms.

France Agrimaire cut French 20.26 to 20.27 soft wheat exports outside the European Union by 0.7 million metric tons to 6.3 million.

and intra-EU shipments by 0.3 million to 7.1 million.

But Kyiv's response was much more conditional, and the market recovered part of the move.

Matif still closed softer, although a weaker euro provided some relative support.

Today's Algeria tender should give a clearer signal of where import demand is willing to engage following the recent rally.

President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt attacks on each other's energy infrastructure, but the agreement remains far from confirmed.

Heavy Midwest rainfall this week could slow corn and soybean harvesting.

US spring wheat harvest has reached ninety-three percent, while winter wheat planting advanced to eight percent, compared with twelve percent normally.

The December Chicago to Matif wheat spread is now near the upper end of its ten-year historical range, showing that Chicago remains unusually strong relative to European wheat.

Turning to CNBC, the ten-year US Treasury yield briefly crossed the psychologically important five percent level on Monday ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting.

And he continues to look to the West for money and munitions to continue the conflict.

However, the very mention of the word peace continues to unnerve the market, resulting in rounds of profit-taking by speculators and fund managers who have built large, long futures positions on both CBOT and Matif.

Meanwhile, both sides continue bombarding port facilities and infrastructure not only in the Black Sea, but also in the Baltic ports, the Danube, and more recently the Caspian Sea.

The fear is that a peace deal that allows grain that is currently blocked to flow into the market would initially weigh heavily on prices.

Perhaps in another few weeks we'll see which side of that equation tilts the scales with more vigour, but right now, how the premium structure moves in the next few months is as much about the feed market as it is the malting.

And oil seed rape this week, veg oil demand in the US, unfavourable weather conditions in Canada and Friday's WASDA report.

A potent combination of rising oil prices, trade conflicts and aggressive global buying caused Matif rapeseed prices to soar to six-week highs.

The largest catalyst was the 7% increase in soybean prices in the United States.

I am Mark Millarup, and today I will discuss the renewed strength in wheat, Pakistan's return to the import market, Ukraine and European export developments, weaker U.S. corn conditions, and the latest outlook for the Russia-Ukraine war.

U.S. wheat started strongly as Chicago caught up with Monday's Matif move and then pushed even higher, although the session finished well off the highs.

The lack of progress in weekend Russia-Ukraine talks initially brought the Black Sea premium straight back into the market.

before President Volodymyr Zelensky said U.S. negotiators had presented several decent ideas, reviving some hope of further discussions and cooling the rally.

European wheat recovered in a thin Monday session, with US markets closed for Labor Day and trading volumes understandably light.

Matif found support from the lack of progress in U.S.-led Russia-Ukraine talks, while Chicago wheat has returned sharply higher this morning as the market removes some of the peace premium priced in late last week.

Saudi Arabia canceled its 535,000 metric ton wheat tender after saying the offers received were unsuitable.

Traders linked the cancellation to high prices following the Black Sea rally.

So there's, there's a contrast in statement and actual action.

So the market literally dropped 11 euros yesterday at one point and ended up on the day about six euros down in, in Matif.

We were, you know, literally £9 down and ended up £5 down on the day.

Today it's a bit quieter.

Port access, vessel risk and freight costs are currently more important than the tax burden itself.

Positioning in Matif wheat has also become increasingly stretched.

Non-commercial participants added 51.9 thousand contracts last week, taking their net long position to 201.1 thousand contracts.

December wheat gained €12.75 per tonne over the same period.