Openview 1st October 2026

Fast forward one week and nothing much has changed.

Russia and Ukraine continue to bombard one another and Ukraine themselves admitted they see little chance of a ceasefire this side of the new year.

Tensions between Russia and NATO increased with Russia reintroducing the nuclear option in communications between the two if Putin's red lines are crossed.

Russia and Ukrainian wheat continues to travel overland and by rail to find alternative destinations, whilst increased volumes moving via the Danube and Baltic ports are causing the inevitable bottlenecks and increasing tensions amongst neighbouring countries.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran continue to fall short of any meaningful accord, which is keeping energy prices elevated.

The outcome of the Trump-Xi summit in Washington last week fell short of expectations on potential sales of US agricultural products, with no specific volumes of maize and wheat mentioned in dispatches.

However, China removed import tariffs on a range of US agricultural products, including wheat and maize, which should enhance US price competitiveness against competing origins.

China maintained their 10% import tariff on US soybeans, which disappointed the market as it means that purchases will be via state-controlled bodies, and cyano-grain, which are less price-sensitive than commercial companies.

The USDA released their September US quarterly stocks and small grains report yesterday, which was construed as neutral wheat bearish maize.

Wheat stocks were below expectations, which exceeded a minor increase in US wheat production.

The bearish surprise was a 177 million bushel, 4.5 million tonnes reduction in US maize stocks which exceeded the top end of analysts' expectations, comprising a reduction in feed and residual usage which was only partially offset by a reduction in the harvested area.

There's been much debate that the USDA had overstated feed and residual usage last season to compensate for their record trend yield, which many contested.

In the event, they left the yield unchanged, which probably closes the book on that debate.

The increase takes 2627 US ending stocks back above the historically sensitive 10% stocks to use ratio, although the bears would argue that the USDA is overstating the 2627 yield and that a two bushel per acre reduction in future reports would negate yesterday's gain.

Nevertheless, the markets didn't like it, and CBOT maize dropped $8 following the report, dragging wheat down with it into month-end, as specs and funds exited some of their massive maize-long positions.

The wheat market has subsequently stabilised, but remains vulnerable to the next news headline.

The UK wheat futures market has now dropped £15 from its highs in early September, but the domestic cash, the physical market, remains tight.

Many farmers have taken advantage of the higher prices, which have risen £30 to £40 from pre-harvest lows, and who are now busy on the land.

Consumers remain biased on dips, but are largely uncovered further forward, hoping for a resolution to the Black Sea gridlock.

Following another disappointing domestic wheat harvest, the UK will again need significant wheat and maize imports to balance the supply-demand equation, the price and availability of which will determine domestic price discovery.

Meanwhile, EU exports are beginning to benefit from the lack of Black Sea competition and the failure of the EU maize crop will increase demand for wheat as feed within the community but will not be immune from outside influences.