Sep 21, 2026 · 28 min · 11 segments
Everything else “strategic” like semi-conductor chips, rare earth minerals, cloud computing etc., is de-risking away from China while biopharma is de-risking into it. The US-China biotech deal value…
In critical minerals, in semiconductors, in cloud infrastructure, the entire policy direction for the last five years have been de-risking.
Western pharma companies are increasing their reliance on Chinese biotechs, not for manufacturing, which is the story we are used to telling, but for the actual pipeline, for the science, for the molecules.
Over $200 billion of branded revenue is exposed to patent expiry by 2030, the largest cliff this industry has ever faced.
Big Pharma needs replacement assets, and it needs them faster and cheaper than its own R&D engines can produce them.
And that number alone is attention grabbing, but the number that actually matters more is the growth in average deal size.
Now, pipeline share, meaning what percentage of a company's actual drug pipeline originated in China, is still modest.
One scan of 12 top pharma companies found even the most China-forward names had sourced around 7.6% of pipeline from Chinese companies.
In critical minerals, in semiconductors, in cloud infrastructure, the entire policy direction for the last five years have been de-risking.
Western pharma companies are increasing their reliance on Chinese biotechs, not for manufacturing, which is the story we are used to telling, but for the actual pipeline, for the science, for the molecules.
Over $200 billion of branded revenue is exposed to patent expiry by 2030, the largest cliff this industry has ever faced.
Big Pharma needs replacement assets, and it needs them faster and cheaper than its own R&D engines can produce them.
And that number alone is attention grabbing, but the number that actually matters more is the growth in average deal size.
Now, pipeline share, meaning what percentage of a company's actual drug pipeline originated in China, is still modest.
One scan of 12 top pharma companies found even the most China-forward names had sourced around 7.6% of pipeline from Chinese companies.
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