SpaceX Is Coming for CoreWeave, Nebius… and the Hyperscalers

Kyle, SpaceX is ripping.

We've talked about it many times on the show, uh, but I'm happy to do a, a specific episode about it because I think people have been waiting for this, for the Kyle thesis about SpaceX.

So t- tell me why we're bullish.

Tell me why everybody's bullish right now.

[laughs] Uh, I mean, right now as we're recording, we're real bullish on SpaceX because of Niveus and CoreWeave just released their earnings, uh, and they were through the roof, and SpaceX is becoming a, a Neocloud and probably will be the biggest Neocloud in the next, I don't know, nine months.

Uh, so it's, it's kinda ripping off the backs of that.

But ultimately I think what's happening here is, um, SpaceX is building three really big moats that I'm gonna talk a lot about throughout the show, and I think that's gonna always put a premium on top of SpaceX stock.

So everyone always calls SpaceX, you know, overvalued, and it is versus its revenues today, but I think because of the moats that it's building towards, it will always look overvalued.

Similar to how Tesla has always, always looked overvalued.

You call it the Elon premium, but it's not.

It's actually they're, like, manufacturing the moats that they, they have.

Um, but ultimately I think SpaceX is going to become the most important and the largest company by market cap by 2030, so within, you know, three to four years.

And I don't think the market fully understood that.

I think the market knew that SpaceX was this, like, really important company and what they're doing with space is super cool and Starlink is growing.

What I think the market's just starting to wrap their heads around is how big of an AI company SpaceX is.

And when you look at who they're now competing with, it is, it's, uh, it- it's many of the biggest and the best companies in the world, right? Like, they're an AI company in the sense of, like, a Neocloud, so they're competing with the Niveuses and the CoreWeaves of the world, even the hyperscalers.

But then they're also an AI labs company competing with Anthropic and, and, uh, OpenAI.

A lot of the market thought they were gonna fall behind on that, but they're making huge moves with this acquisition with Cursor.

So now they're actually, you know, potentially going to be, you know, a, a, a very dominant, um, frontier model as well.

So I think the market's just trying to figure out what the heck this company is, um, and so I think that it is actually undervalued to where, uh... a- and the market thinks it's overvalued.

I think it's actually undervalued, and I just did a whole valuation model on it, you know, over this last week, and, and I really think if you look at where the numbers are going for SpaceX, and it's growing at just a, a rate that I don't think people can fully wrap their heads around, that when you look at that growth and you look at the different revenue streams of SpaceX, you can see that actually this thing is going to reach its valuation, its, like, fundamental valuation very quickly, um, and go well beyond that.

And if you tack on an Elon premium or the moat premium, whatever you wanna say, it already looks like SpaceX is undervalued.

Now, it's a weird thing to say 'cause it just IPO'd.

It's worth almost $2 trillion, yet its revenues were...

I don't even remember what it was for Q2, but, uh, you know, we're looking, you know, at, like, 40 billion max for, for, for 2026, so it's quite small versus a, a $2 trillion company, and we've got about 40% of the shares unlocking in the next few months.