Lyn Alden: Why The Market Is Missing The Next Energy Shock

Well, in the near term, I would say that the market is still underpricing the, the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Yeah, the market's kind of gotten to its head that, wait, there wasn't like a major energy crisis yet, per se, so that then it means it's not gonna happen.

You could get another wave higher in, in prices and potentially another wave of shortages, energy curfews, things like that.

The AI companies are losing money.

They're still, they're still venture funded.

You know, they're basically in the business of selling $20 bills for $10.

The likely scenario is that the bubble pops not in terms of direction, but in terms of time.

In addition, I mean, for a long time Bitcoin was the fastest horse really, uh, that, that you could invest in.

It was kind of the best performer, and the rise of AI companies has challenged that because there are other places to put capital.

I don't think the four-year cycle i- is really functionally relevant anymore.

Welcome back to the Microscopic podcast.

My name is Alexei Jordanov, and I am your host.

Today is the third of June, twenty twenty-six, and I have the honor of sitting again with Lynn Alden, a recurring guest.

Welcome back, Lynn.

Thanks for having me again.

Happy to be here.

[chuckles] So, uh, last time we spoke was around a year ago, May twenty twenty-five, and, um, a lot of things happened as always.

And today we'll be exploring the surge in sovereign bond yields across the G Seven and what it means for the traditional sixty to forty portfolio, but also the geopolitical shockwaves from the Hormuz crisis and what this has actually developed into the last weeks and closing oil lanes revealing fragility on the petrodollar system, but also the historic milestone of gold overtaking US Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset and where the de-dollarization stands today in hard numbers.

So we'll also talk obviously about Bitcoin and whether the four-year cycle still holds, and what we can expect after this forty-seven percent pullback from its peak.

So, um, I'll start first with the bond market, Lynn, if you may.