Wake up call
Oct 7, 2026 · 27 min · 12 segments
There has been a substantial widening of spreads in the European bond markets. While the epicentre is in the French bond market, it seems to have morphed from a French idiosyncratic problem to a…
Oct 7, 2026 · 27 min · 12 segments
There has been a substantial widening of spreads in the European bond markets. While the epicentre is in the French bond market, it seems to have morphed from a French idiosyncratic problem to a…
George MoranGuest
Peter SchaffrikGuestMegum MuhicHostI mean, that's super interesting given, you know, l- like I said, we fielded so many questions from, from clients, uh, specifically on the TPI program.
But as you mentioned, there are probably tools that can be, uh, used before then.
Maybe thinking a bit broader now, um, is there anything that can be done fiscally here? I know in situations like this, uh, calls for Pan-European funding are never far from the surface.
When we think back to the pandemic era, uh, or rather the, the aftermath of it, we had the NGEU, um, that is running out, um, at the end of this year, and one of the calls for a follow-on program, I think, would only, um, get stronger.
And I can see an environment where whilst the NGEU program was obviously designed to get Europe growing again after the pandemic, and the funds were predominantly skewed towards Southern Europe, uh, which suffered more during the pandemic than Northern Europe, I can see an environment now, for instance, where the, um, EU would say, "Well, we need to do something for the military in particular.
There's the realities on the ground and the situation we're facing with Russia and, and all of that." And I could see a program that would be designed on a pan-European basis that then, let's say, goes more towards military spending, and when you look at where the big military industries are in Europe, they're obviously designed...
So I can see something like that, um, but again, we also have to keep in mind the European machinery is working rather slowly, and it sometimes takes, like, a real crisis to get them into gear.
So I wouldn't hold my breath that something like this is gonna be rolled out quickly.
I mean, that's super interesting given, you know, l- like I said, we fielded so many questions from, from clients, uh, specifically on the TPI program.
But as you mentioned, there are probably tools that can be, uh, used before then.
Maybe thinking a bit broader now, um, is there anything that can be done fiscally here? I know in situations like this, uh, calls for Pan-European funding are never far from the surface.
When we think back to the pandemic era, uh, or rather the, the aftermath of it, we had the NGEU, um, that is running out, um, at the end of this year, and one of the calls for a follow-on program, I think, would only, um, get stronger.
And I can see an environment where whilst the NGEU program was obviously designed to get Europe growing again after the pandemic, and the funds were predominantly skewed towards Southern Europe, uh, which suffered more during the pandemic than Northern Europe, I can see an environment now, for instance, where the, um, EU would say, "Well, we need to do something for the military in particular.
There's the realities on the ground and the situation we're facing with Russia and, and all of that." And I could see a program that would be designed on a pan-European basis that then, let's say, goes more towards military spending, and when you look at where the big military industries are in Europe, they're obviously designed...
So I can see something like that, um, but again, we also have to keep in mind the European machinery is working rather slowly, and it sometimes takes, like, a real crisis to get them into gear.
So I wouldn't hold my breath that something like this is gonna be rolled out quickly.
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