Cathal KennedyGuest
Peter SchaffrikHost
Uh, and maybe if I wrap that up, um, so the, the, the uncertainty-- I think what I learned is the uncertainty in the UK, uh, the domestic uncertainty is not going to go away quickly.

The political trouble is probably going to outlast even the next leader, um, and it's unlikely that we will get any kind of very, very stable government in place anytime soon.

In the near term, however, particularly as far as Bank of England expectations are concerned, we shouldn't be pricing off that domestic uncertainty straight away.

So what we are thinking in terms of how to position in the market is you still have to be reasonably cautious, um, with UK govies in particular.

Surely there is-- could be a short snapback, but over the more medium term, that premium that's built into the UK market is probably going to be there for quite some time.

Yet, if you are somebody who's active at the very short end of the yield curve, there is probably an opportunity here because what we're seeing at the moment being priced in terms of rate hikes might well not transpire at all.

And without stealing Cathal's thunder, we have implied one rate hike from the Bank in its July meeting, and the market is obviously pricing much more than that.

Uh, and maybe if I wrap that up, um, so the, the, the uncertainty-- I think what I learned is the uncertainty in the UK, uh, the domestic uncertainty is not going to go away quickly.

The political trouble is probably going to outlast even the next leader, um, and it's unlikely that we will get any kind of very, very stable government in place anytime soon.

In the near term, however, particularly as far as Bank of England expectations are concerned, we shouldn't be pricing off that domestic uncertainty straight away.

So what we are thinking in terms of how to position in the market is you still have to be reasonably cautious, um, with UK govies in particular.

Surely there is-- could be a short snapback, but over the more medium term, that premium that's built into the UK market is probably going to be there for quite some time.

Yet, if you are somebody who's active at the very short end of the yield curve, there is probably an opportunity here because what we're seeing at the moment being priced in terms of rate hikes might well not transpire at all.

And without stealing Cathal's thunder, we have implied one rate hike from the Bank in its July meeting, and the market is obviously pricing much more than that.
The rest of this transcript — segmented and speaker-labeled, so you land on the exact moment something was said
Search every transcript — by keyword, by phrase, or by meaning, across every show Radar indexes
Trends — what is surging across podcasts, measured against its own baseline
Alerts — when a name you follow appears in a newly indexed episode
No account is needed to search Radar.