Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor

The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.

The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait, and the Taiwan Strait is a formidal bo- formidable body of water, and getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.

We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II, that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards, uh, the other side's beaches, and they provide a target-rich environment for the defending forces.

So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces, uh, to pull that off.

And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.

Um, [lip smack] first of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979, so this is not an army that's primed for combat.

This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience, uh, and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation, uh, like, uh, an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.

Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved, uh, the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.

There would be many thousands of drones in the sky, and we know from the Ukraine War that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield.

And for sure, drones would have a significant effect, uh, on the ability of those, uh, amphibious forces coming from China, uh, and moving across the Taiwan Strait.

I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces.

A- and moreover, I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait, uh, would wreak havoc on the attacking forces it we- as well.

So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.

I also think that even if I'm wrong and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of, uh, Taiwan, they would pay an enormous cost, and in effect, it would be a Pyrrhic victory.

I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan, they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.

In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.

So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans, and the Japanese for that matter, uh, would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.

Uh, I don't think that they, um, uh, have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.

Uh, all they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, uh, even if they were to win this war.

And I think that the, the, the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.

So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that, uh, uh, that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.