Sep 28, 2026 · 22 min · 12 segments
Grain prices are heading into harvest with an unusual amount of momentum, but DTN lead market analyst Rhett Montgomery says farmers should resist the temptation to wait for the perfect price. Instead…
Rhett MontgomeryGuest
Chad MoyerHost
So talking about this idea of grain marketing, your work at DTN, one of the things that you do is kind of the six factors that producers should consider when they are going to market their grain.
Could you give us a little bit of insights into those? What are the six factors that you feel, as a DTN analyst, are important for producers to focus on?
So Darren Newsome came up with those during his time as DTN's lead analyst.
I really think they work in simplifying and giving producers a clear roadmap on what the big trends are or what the big factors are driving prices at a given time.
The reason for that is obviously you don't want to be – trying to get too fancy and out guessing a longer term trend within a market.
The next factors we look at are both the non-commercial and commercial factors within the market.
The non-commercials being very important where we're sitting right now with, as of the most recent CFTC data, almost 1.2 million futures contracts in length across grain and oilseed futures.
Truly impressive and made more impressive by the time of the year we're in.
The commercial ties right back into what we were talking about with the merchandising standpoint.
We track basis across the country as an average, combined with future spreads as indicators on what the market is telling you in terms of storing grain moving forward.
The next piece would be a seasonality piece, another thing that we rely on and lean on very heavily at DTN.
year in and year out, in an uncertain world, one of the more certain things you can lean on.
But it's been more difficult the last 18 or so months, I would say, especially looking at pretty high prices here heading into harvest.
And then next, we do have a volatility and also a price probability are the last two.
So talking about this idea of grain marketing, your work at DTN, one of the things that you do is kind of the six factors that producers should consider when they are going to market their grain.
Could you give us a little bit of insights into those? What are the six factors that you feel, as a DTN analyst, are important for producers to focus on?
So Darren Newsome came up with those during his time as DTN's lead analyst.
I really think they work in simplifying and giving producers a clear roadmap on what the big trends are or what the big factors are driving prices at a given time.
The reason for that is obviously you don't want to be – trying to get too fancy and out guessing a longer term trend within a market.
The next factors we look at are both the non-commercial and commercial factors within the market.
The non-commercials being very important where we're sitting right now with, as of the most recent CFTC data, almost 1.2 million futures contracts in length across grain and oilseed futures.
Truly impressive and made more impressive by the time of the year we're in.
The commercial ties right back into what we were talking about with the merchandising standpoint.
We track basis across the country as an average, combined with future spreads as indicators on what the market is telling you in terms of storing grain moving forward.
The next piece would be a seasonality piece, another thing that we rely on and lean on very heavily at DTN.
year in and year out, in an uncertain world, one of the more certain things you can lean on.
But it's been more difficult the last 18 or so months, I would say, especially looking at pretty high prices here heading into harvest.
And then next, we do have a volatility and also a price probability are the last two.
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