Markets Weekly podcast (7 September 2026): Are rising bond yields a warning sign?

Excellent.

Well, thank you so much, Michel.

We'll get you back, I'm sure, in the not too distant future because there is so much going on and we're going to have to debrief this upcoming Fed decision as well.

So thank you for that.

Well, yeah, that was quite interesting.

I mean, there is so much happening here.

For me, the key thing is to see this relationship between bond yield and equities, because if you had told anyone, I think, a few months ago that the U.S. 10-year would be closing in on 5%, I don't think they would have expected U.S. equity market to do so well.

So I guess the key question is how long.

equity market can sustain this surge in bond yield.

So far, so good, but I think there will be a breaking point at some point.

It's hard to say when.

Now, we're going to have a very interesting week this week because there are a few catalysts.

What is it that you're going to be paying close attention to on your side?

I guess my view would be looking at the ECB meeting that's happening.

I'll be looking at how the press conference between Christine and Lagarde goes.

The key things I'll be watching out for is around whether they comment on base effects during the meeting and is there going to be pass-through.

But however, I do believe that she'll... continue to say that they're committed to no policy path at the moment.

They'll be watching data will be the key points that I'll be looking out for.

And what would you be looking

out for,

Julian? Well, I'll definitely be watching.

the press conference from Christine Lagarde as well.

I think I agree that she's probably not going to say much about the future pass for interest rates, but she will definitely get some question around that.

And those three hikes are currently priced in.

But for me, the big catalyst for this week will come on Friday with the US CPI data.

Excellent.

Well, thank you so much, Michel.

We'll get you back, I'm sure, in the not too distant future because there is so much going on and we're going to have to debrief this upcoming Fed decision as well.

So thank you for that.

Well, yeah, that was quite interesting.

I mean, there is so much happening here.

For me, the key thing is to see this relationship between bond yield and equities, because if you had told anyone, I think, a few months ago that the U.S. 10-year would be closing in on 5%, I don't think they would have expected U.S. equity market to do so well.

So I guess the key question is how long.

equity market can sustain this surge in bond yield.

So far, so good, but I think there will be a breaking point at some point.

It's hard to say when.

Now, we're going to have a very interesting week this week because there are a few catalysts.

What is it that you're going to be paying close attention to on your side?

I guess my view would be looking at the ECB meeting that's happening.

I'll be looking at how the press conference between Christine and Lagarde goes.

The key things I'll be watching out for is around whether they comment on base effects during the meeting and is there going to be pass-through.

But however, I do believe that she'll... continue to say that they're committed to no policy path at the moment.

They'll be watching data will be the key points that I'll be looking out for.

And what would you be looking

out for,

Julian? Well, I'll definitely be watching.

the press conference from Christine Lagarde as well.

I think I agree that she's probably not going to say much about the future pass for interest rates, but she will definitely get some question around that.

And those three hikes are currently priced in.

But for me, the big catalyst for this week will come on Friday with the US CPI data.